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Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework

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Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework. / Ballas, Dimitris; Clarke, Graham; Dewhurst, John.

In: Spatial Economic Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2006, p. 127-146.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Ballas, D, Clarke, G & Dewhurst, J 2006, 'Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework' Spatial Economic Analysis, vol 1, no. 1, pp. 127-146.

APA

Ballas, D., Clarke, G., & Dewhurst, J. (2006). Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework. Spatial Economic Analysis, 1(1), 127-146doi: 10.1080/17421770600697729

Vancouver

Ballas D, Clarke G, Dewhurst J. Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework. Spatial Economic Analysis. 2006;1(1):127-146.

Author

Ballas, Dimitris; Clarke, Graham; Dewhurst, John / Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework.

In: Spatial Economic Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2006, p. 127-146.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bibtex - Download

@article{2e9dd2b572af4d1283f98098d34da713,
title = "Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework",
author = "Dimitris Ballas and Graham Clarke and John Dewhurst",
note = "dc.publisher: Routledge",
year = "2006",
volume = "1",
number = "1",
pages = "127--146",
journal = "Spatial Economic Analysis",
issn = "1742-1772",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the socio-economic impacts of major job loss or gain at the local level: a spatial microsimulation framework

A1 - Ballas,Dimitris

A1 - Clarke,Graham

A1 - Dewhurst,John

AU - Ballas,Dimitris

AU - Clarke,Graham

AU - Dewhurst,John

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - It has long been argued that spatial microsimulation models can be used to estimate the impact of major changes in the local labour market through job losses or gains, including local multiplier effects. In a previous paper we have used SimLeeds, which is a spatial microsimulation model for the Leeds local labour market, in order to estimate the initial employment and income effect of a hypothetical closure of an engineering plant on different surrounding localities. This paper builds on that work and presents an extension of SimLeeds in order to provide estimates for the multiplier effects of such major changes in a local economy. In particular, we focus on the spatial distribution of the multiplier effects such as the event changes that are triggered by initial job and income effects. The disposable income gain or loss for each individual or household eventually leads to the increase/decrease of consumption of goods and services and to possible changes of the preferred retail location etc. (i.e. moving to more/less expensive stores). There are also net monetary losses for the government from the increase/decrease of income tax revenue and from the decrease/increase of the benefit claims from the households affected. In addition, the initial income and employment impacts would have second- and third-round multiplier effects, which could include the openings/closures of local convenience grocery stores as a result of the rise/fall of local demand for their goods. These closures in turn would generate further job creation or loss, which would have further multiplier effects at different localities within the city. This paper addresses all these multiplier effects in a spatial microsimulation context and provides a new framework for multiplier-effect micro-spatial analysis.

AB - It has long been argued that spatial microsimulation models can be used to estimate the impact of major changes in the local labour market through job losses or gains, including local multiplier effects. In a previous paper we have used SimLeeds, which is a spatial microsimulation model for the Leeds local labour market, in order to estimate the initial employment and income effect of a hypothetical closure of an engineering plant on different surrounding localities. This paper builds on that work and presents an extension of SimLeeds in order to provide estimates for the multiplier effects of such major changes in a local economy. In particular, we focus on the spatial distribution of the multiplier effects such as the event changes that are triggered by initial job and income effects. The disposable income gain or loss for each individual or household eventually leads to the increase/decrease of consumption of goods and services and to possible changes of the preferred retail location etc. (i.e. moving to more/less expensive stores). There are also net monetary losses for the government from the increase/decrease of income tax revenue and from the decrease/increase of the benefit claims from the households affected. In addition, the initial income and employment impacts would have second- and third-round multiplier effects, which could include the openings/closures of local convenience grocery stores as a result of the rise/fall of local demand for their goods. These closures in turn would generate further job creation or loss, which would have further multiplier effects at different localities within the city. This paper addresses all these multiplier effects in a spatial microsimulation context and provides a new framework for multiplier-effect micro-spatial analysis.

U2 - 10.1080/17421770600697729

DO - 10.1080/17421770600697729

M1 - Article

JO - Spatial Economic Analysis

JF - Spatial Economic Analysis

SN - 1742-1772

IS - 1

VL - 1

SP - 127

EP - 146

ER -

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