Macatangay, Rafael

I teach three postgraduate modules, CP51003 Analytical Tools for Energy Economics, CP52071 Economics of Electric Power, and CP52002 Contemporary Issues in Energy Economics. I also teach most of the economics sessions of CP50001 Natural Resources Sectors: A Multidisciplinary Introduction. And I deliver two specialist lectures: “Research Methods and Methodology in Energy Economics” as part of the postgraduate research seminar; and “Energy risk management” as part of a postgraduate module on risk and crisis management.

CP51003 Analytical Tools for Energy Economics covers optimisation, statistical techniques, and numerical methods, with emphasis on accounting indicators, statistics, intensity, market calibration, optimisation, procurement, locational pricing, power plant-gas pipeline linkages, levelised cost analysis, and computable general equilibrium modelling. CP52071 Economics of Electric Power is on the law and economics of the electric power sector, with emphasis on scheduling, balancing, despatching renewable energy, congestion (in particular, nodal pricing), fuel markets (especially natural gas), risk management, economic regulation, and optimal expansion decisions. CP52002 Contemporary Issues in Energy Economics puts emphasis on the law and economics of energy transitions, market behaviour, pricing, competition and regulation (including market design), environmental issues (in particular, emissions trading), energy security, renewables, and investments and access.

I have a PhD in economics from the University of Manchester, UK and I conducted post-doctoral research at the University of California Energy Institute, Berkeley, CA. I am Lecturer in Energy Economics at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy (“CEPMLP”), School of Social Sciences. I am a specialist in electricity and natural gas markets and related energy commodities. In the UK there are only a few energy law centres, and CEPMLP, founded in 1977, is “the oldest and remains the largest and most influential in the UK and internationally.” CEPMLP encourages multi-disciplinary research and advisory on the global energy complex and delivers educational programmes for postgraduate students and energy sector professionals from different countries. CEPMLP students pursue at least a Master’s or a PhD (i.e. there are no undergraduate students), and most of them are professionals working in the energy sector, including electric power, natural gas, or oil companies, law firms, or regulatory agencies, in different parts of the world.

I am a member of the Technical Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change Analysis for the Scottish Government, and a member of the Offshore Renewables Institute, a research partnership involving three Scottish universities. I recently spent about two person-months as a consultant on US natural gas markets at the UK offices of a large investment management firm (with tens of billions of dollars under management and a few hundred employees in offices worldwide). The project draws on my research on the energy industry, professional experience in the energy sector in North America, Western Europe, and the Asia Pacific, and multidisciplinary ethos. The opportunity for me to engage with the firm not only strengthens the research, teaching, and knowledge exchange activities of CEPMLP, but also supports the University of Dundee’s vision of societal transformation.

At CEPMLP, I have obtained external funding for research projects. I am Co-Investigator, “Chinese national oil companies and the economic development of African oil producers” funded by the Department for International Development and the Economic and Social Research Council. The project started in November 2014 and is on-going. I was Co-Investigator, an analysis of methodologies for estimating the levelised cost of energy of off-shore wind, a research project funded by the Energy Technology Partnership, Scotland. The project started in August 2014 and was completed in July 2015. And I was Co-Investigator, “Natural resources development projects as a pathway towards the transformation of Africa’s economies” sponsored by the African Center for Economic Transformation, Accra, Ghana. The project started in June 2012 and was completed in June 2013.

Here below is an overview of my professional experience bridging industry, consulting, policy analysis, and academia. I was Manager, Transaction and Market Analysis, in the Resource Optimization department of NV Energy Inc. (“NVE”), the utility holding company serving the State of Nevada in the US. My work involved the analysis of medium- and long-term trading recommendations on physical and financial electric power products, such as energy, capacity, or heat rate call options. It covered the review of market fundamentals and the open position, the determination of the products appropriate to the portfolio, the calibration of spread option models, the assessment of forward market risks, and the examination of renewable energy contracts, including the software for monitoring contractual performance. It included not only the preparation of be-spoke analysis of trading opportunities as they arose, but also the strategic assessment of neighbouring utility portfolios (i.e. load growth, capacity margins, structure of ancillary service product markets, regulatory or environmental policies, prospects for plant-specific or system-wide products, etc.) in search of medium- and long-term trading opportunities.

My work at NVE also involved the analysis of physical and financial natural gas portfolios valued at about $1B/year. For physical gas, I was engaged in the design, construction, and operation of combinatorial optimisation models reflecting NVE’s supply and transport contracts; the design, construction, and operation of allocation models for determining optimal bidding hub volumes; the provision of bid evaluation and trading support; the collaboration with the production cost modelling team; the management of the entire analytical process across several departments; and the archiving of documents for audit and regulatory purposes. For financial gas, I performed the calibration of Black (1976) option premium models; the calibration of two-factor mean-reverting models for prices and volatility term structures; the calculation and reporting of NVE’s risk metrics; the design, construction, and operation of a hedge optimisation model; and the provision of thought leadership on hedge design.

At NVE I gave regular presentations at risk committee meetings involving C-level executives and senior decision-makers, offered oral and written expert testimony to the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada, and played leading roles in workshops with Commission Staff and the Nevada Bureau of Consumer Protection.

Prior to joining NVE, I was a Vice President at the California office of Economists Incorporated, a consulting firm of PhD economists offering professional advice on the application of economics to matters that arise in law, business, and public policy. I provided both written and oral expert testimony for the defendant at the US Court of Federal Claims in Washington DC for a nuclear power case that resulted in the denial of plaintiff’s claim of more than $100M in damages. For a project on Renewable Portfolio Standards, I led a team designing electric utility ratemaking structures encouraging investments in renewable energy, and gave workshops on energy market simulation to public utilities commission staff and senior management of industry.

Prior to joining Economists Incorporated, I was Economist at LCG Consulting, a California software firm (the developer of the UPLAN nodal pricing model for restructured electric power markets, amongst other pieces of software for energy market analysis). I worked on production cost modelling, including nodal pricing analysis, for a wide range of client engagements. Some of the topics include “LMP simulations in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council,” “Using confidential data in support of antitrust litigation in the California electricity market,” “Ancillary services in US generator incomes,” “The contribution of ancillary services to the net income of generators in restructured US electricity markets,” “The removal of coal generation in the US power sector,” “Estimating the value of generation assets in the Midwest Interconnect,” “Power plant valuation and simulation of the Alberta electricity market,” and “Analytical assistance in legal proceedings for transmission tariff design.”

Here is a selection of my consulting projects over the years.

Energy Commodity Specialist, Winton Capital Management Limited, an investment management firm headquartered in London, July 24 to September 9, 2017 at its Oxford office

Project initiator, for a national retailer spending annually about $2B on energy, a study evaluating an option to acquire an ownership interest in a biomass (i.e. chicken-litter) electric power plant (in or around April 2006)

Team leader, a study and advisory on the design of electric utility rates encouraging investments in renewable energy generation (in or around June 2004)

Team member, Application of Wisconsin Public Service Corporation for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity for Construction of A Large Electric Generating Plant with Associated Facilities, known as Weston 4, at Its Existing Weston Generating Station Located in Marathon County, Docket No. 6690-CE-187, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. For the applicant, economic analysis of the impact of a coal plant on competition in wholesale power markets (in or around April 2004)

Team member, for an applicant of FERC market-based rate authority, economic analysis of market power (in or around April 2004)

Team member, economic analysis of the FERC supply margin assessment screen and its alternatives (in or around January 2004)

Team member, Regarding Washington Gas Light Company’s Plan to Return Customers to Sales Service Effective December 1, 2003, Docket No. PUE-2003-00536. Economic analysis of financial security required of a competitive gas supplier by an incumbent gas distributor and retailer (in or around January 2004)

Team member, economic analysis and analytical modeling of merger strategies among electric power generators (in or around August or September 2003)

Team member, “LMP simulations in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council.” For BC Hydro, development of database and a methodology for situating generating plants in a power transmission system (in or around July to September 2002)

Team member, “The back-out of coal generation in the US power sector (a full country assessment).” For the Electric Power Research Institute, economic analysis and market simulation of the removal of coal capacity (in or around June to November 2002)

Team member, “Ancillary services in US generator incomes.” For the Electric Power Research Institute, estimation and simulation of generator incomes from ancillary services markets in five deregulated power markets in the US (in or around June to October 2002)

Team member, “Power plant valuation and simulation of the Alberta electricity market.” For the Balancing Pool of Alberta, Canada, economic and financial analysis and market simulation of generation asset value (in or around May 2002)

Team member, “Analytical assistance in legal proceedings for transmission tariff design.” For EPCOR, Alberta, Canada, economic analysis of proposed regulation on transmission tariffs (in or around March 2002)

Team member, “Using confidential data in support of antitrust litigation in the California electricity market.” For Hennigan, Bennet & Doreman, database development and economic and financial analysis of alleged market power and tacit collusion in California power markets during the energy crisis (in or around February to September 2002)

Team member, “The removal of coal generation in the US power sector.” For the Electric Power Research Institute, economic analysis and market simulation of coal generation withdrawal (in or around February to March 2002)

Team leader, “A review of US electricity markets in 2001.” For various corporate customers, economic, financial, and statistical analysis of power market data (in or around January 2002)

Team member, “Electric power industry restructuring in Taiwan.” For Taiwan Power, economic, financial, and institutional analysis of power sector deregulation (in or around December 2001)

Team member, “A methodology for the optimal procurement of net short requirements of San Diego Gas & Electric.” For SDG&E, economic analysis and market simulation in support of a determination of optimal generation procurement (in or around December 2001)

Team member, “Estimating the value of generation assets in the Midwest Interconnect.” For Alliant Energy Resources, Inc., economic and financial analysis and market simulation of generation asset value (in or around November 2001)

Team member, “The contribution of ancillary services to the net income of generators in restructured US electricity markets.” For the Electric Power Research Institute, economic analysis and estimation of generator income from ancillary services (in or around November 2001)

Team member, “Organizing confidential subpoena data for the analysis of market power and tacit collusion in California electricity markets.” For Hennigan, Bennet, & Doreman, database development and economic analysis of alleged market power and tacit collusion in California power markets during the energy crisis (in or around October 2001)

Early in my career, I was Senior Consultant, Deloitte and Touche LLP, in San Francisco, CA. And before doing my PhD, whilst at the Center for Research and Communication (“CRC”), an economics think-tank which evolved into the University of Asia and the Pacific, in Manila, I conducted research and advisory projects on various Philippine energy sector topics, such as the evaluation of power purchases from independent power producers, electricity sector restructuring, and the deregulation of petroleum product pricing. Much of my work at CRC was done for private energy companies, government agencies, and government owned or controlled corporations, often in collaboration with international development institutions or US consulting firms, such as The World Bank, Japan External Trade Organization, Rothschild London, Washington DC consulting firm K&M Engineering, French energy consulting firm Trans Energ, Sacramento, CA consulting firm Resource Management International, Inc., Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corporation, and Unocal subsidiary Philippine Geothermal Inc.

Moreover, whilst at CRC, I had participated in two major leadership programmes. Under the Environment Fellowship Program of the Asia Foundation, I engaged in a two-month study tour of universities and think-tanks in the US, including but not limited to the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; MIT Energy Laboratory; Economics Department, Stanford University; Resources for the Future, Washington DC; and Environmental Defense Fund, New York. And under the Southeast Asia Youth Invitational Program of the Japanese Government, I engaged in a three-week study tour of corporate, government, and cultural institutions in Japan, including but not limited to the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, National Diet, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

In summary, my professional profile reflects a strong emphasis on electricity and natural gas markets and related energy commodities globally. I have a track record of delivering analytical work products supporting strategic commercial decisions in complex legal or regulatory settings. I am competent in the design or implementation of rigorous, reliable, and auditable methodologies consistent with best practice in industry or established approaches in the scholarly literature. And I am comfortable and relaxed in communicating complex economics concepts, written or spoken, to a wide range of international audiences.

My research interests are in the broad areas of energy market risk management, competition and regulation in the energy sector, and natural resource policy. I am keen to provide supervision to PhD students working on topics closely aligned with my research interests. If you would like to explore the prospects of doing a PhD under my supervision, please feel free to email me a research proposal!

Working papers

“Skew preference in energy commodity option design” (with A Yimer), under review

“The law and economics of conciliation for transboundary energy resource disputes” (with V Roeben), under review

“Generation plant divestiture in electricity market restructuring” (with D F Hakam)

“Supply risk and strategic behaviour in natural gas markets” (with T V Nguyen)

“Eluding regulatory capture and pursuing energy justice under the European Energy Union” (with V Roeben)

“Markets as regulatory mechanisms: indigenous companies and local content requirement policies in extractive industries” (with R Atta-Ankoma)

“Towards optimal treaties for transboundary watercourse management” (with A Rieu-Clarke)

Presentations

Presentation “Towards optimal treaties for transboundary watercourse management” at the 36th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Washington DC, September 23 to 26, 2018

Presentation “Skew preference in energy commodity option design” at the 35th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Houston, TX, November 12 to 15, 2017

Presentation “Skew preference in energy commodity option design” at the CEPMLP Staff Seminar Series, November 8, 2017

Presentation “Skew preference in energy commodity option design” to Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Malaysia, September 28, 2017

Presentation “Competition and regulation in the energy sector” to Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Malaysia, September 27, 2017

Presentation “Fuel cost hedging in electric utilities” to Scottish Government staff from Energy and Climate Change Analysis and Electricity and Fossil Fuels groups, Atlantic Quay, Glasgow, July 25, 2014

Presentation “Hedging the cost of natural gas in regulated electric utilities,” Scottish Institute for Research in Economics, Energy Economics Workshop, University of Dundee, June 4, 2014

Presentation “Combining law & economics to analyse treaty effectiveness: an introduction to TOM” (with A. Rieu-Clarke) to GSNRLPM Staff Research Seminar Series, University of Dundee, March 26, 2014

Presentation “Gas hedge strategy and utility regulation” at the 2nd Annual Intelligent Hedging and Portfolio Optimisation for the Energy Markets (Close out Risk - Refining and Developing Best Practice Hedging Strategies in Response to Greater Understandings of Market Dynamics), 17-19 Apr 2013, Steigenberger Hotel Herrenhof, Vienna, Austria

Participant in the panel discussion “Developing highly granular physical and financial instruments for hedging renewable intermittency” at the 2nd Annual Intelligent Hedging and Portfolio Optimisation for the Energy Markets (Close out Risk - Refining and Developing Best Practice Hedging Strategies in Response to Greater Understandings of Market Dynamics), 17-19 Apr 2013, Steigenberger Hotel Herrenhof, Vienna, Austria

Presentation “Analytical tools for gas hedge strategy design” in the quantitative analysis and modelling stream of the October 2012 Energy Risk Europe conference in London

Presentation “Energy hedging by an end-user,” Energy Risk USA Conference, Houston, TX, May 15, 2012

Presentation “Jump diffusion price modeling in hedge strategy analysis,” American Mathematical Society Sectional Meeting (Special Session on Computational and Mathematical Finance, II), University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, April 30, 2011

I am proficient in specialist software, such as R (statistical analysis, regression, optimisation) and GAMS (optimisation), and I have native or bilingual proficiency in English and native proficiency in Tagalog.