A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Stuart Schembri; William Anderson; Steve Morant; Janet Winter; Philip Thompson; Daniel Pettitt; Thomas M. MacDonald; John H. Winter

doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021

A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Stuart Schembri, William Anderson, Steve Morant, Janet Winter, Philip Thompson, Daniel Pettitt, Thomas M. MacDonald, John H. Winter

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

53 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rationale: A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool. to predict outcome is needed.

Methods: In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1 < 80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC < 70% were selected from a clinical. network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors.

Results: Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1461-1467
Number of pages	7
Journal	Respiratory Medicine
Volume	103
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021
Publication status	Published - Oct 2009

Keywords

COPD
Predictive model
Hospitalisation
Death
HEALTH-STATUS
COPD PATIENTS
SURVIVAL
HYPOXEMIA
MORTALITY
TERM
CARE

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021

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title = "A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease",

abstract = "Rationale: A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool. to predict outcome is needed.Methods: In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1 < 80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC < 70% were selected from a clinical. network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors.Results: Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective.Conclusion: We have developed a model. that estimates the risk of respiratory hospitalisation and death in patients with COPD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",

keywords = "COPD, Predictive model, Hospitalisation, Death, HEALTH-STATUS, COPD PATIENTS, SURVIVAL, HYPOXEMIA, MORTALITY, TERM, CARE",

author = "Stuart Schembri and William Anderson and Steve Morant and Janet Winter and Philip Thompson and Daniel Pettitt and MacDonald, {Thomas M.} and Winter, {John H.}",

year = "2009",

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doi = "10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021",

language = "English",

volume = "103",

pages = "1461--1467",

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T1 - A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

AU - Schembri, Stuart

AU - Anderson, William

AU - Morant, Steve

AU - Winter, Janet

AU - Thompson, Philip

AU - Pettitt, Daniel

AU - MacDonald, Thomas M.

AU - Winter, John H.

PY - 2009/10

Y1 - 2009/10

N2 - Rationale: A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool. to predict outcome is needed.Methods: In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1 < 80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC < 70% were selected from a clinical. network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors.Results: Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective.Conclusion: We have developed a model. that estimates the risk of respiratory hospitalisation and death in patients with COPD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AB - Rationale: A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool. to predict outcome is needed.Methods: In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1 < 80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC < 70% were selected from a clinical. network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors.Results: Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective.Conclusion: We have developed a model. that estimates the risk of respiratory hospitalisation and death in patients with COPD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

KW - COPD

KW - Predictive model

KW - Hospitalisation

KW - Death

KW - HEALTH-STATUS

KW - COPD PATIENTS

KW - SURVIVAL

KW - HYPOXEMIA

KW - MORTALITY

KW - TERM

KW - CARE

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DO - 10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021

M3 - Article

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SN - 0954-6111

VL - 103

SP - 1461

EP - 1467

JO - Respiratory Medicine

JF - Respiratory Medicine

IS - 10

ER -

A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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