A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

TY - JOUR

T1 - A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

AU - Tsang, Hing-Ho

AU - Daniell, James E.

AU - Wenzel, Friedemann

AU - Werner, Amelie C.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature.

PY - 2018/6/1

Y1 - 2018/6/1

N2 - Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

AB - Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

KW - Earthquake

KW - Economic loss

KW - Fatality

KW - F–N curve

KW - Recurrence relationship

KW - Societal risk

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85042611464

U2 - 10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z

DO - 10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85042611464

SN - 0921-030X

VL - 92

SP - 943

EP - 969

JO - Natural Hazards

JF - Natural Hazards

IS - 2

ER -