Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

W. Neil Adger, Iain Brown, Swenja Surminski

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    Abstract

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of largescale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number20180106
    Pages (from-to)1-13
    Number of pages13
    JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A - Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
    Volume376
    Issue number2121
    Early online date30 Apr 2018
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 13 Jun 2018

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    Keywords

    • Adaptation
    • Climate change
    • Risk assessment
    • Science policy
    • Systemic risk

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