Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

Abiy S Kebede (Lead / Corresponding author), Robert J Nicholls, Andrew Allan, Iñaki Arto, Ignacio Cazcarro, Jose A Fernandes, Chris T Hill, Craig W Hutton, Susan Kay, Attila N Lázár, Ian Macadam, Matthew Palmer, Natalie Suckall, Emma L Tompkins, Katharine Vincent, Paul W Whitehead

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)
116 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)659-672
Number of pages14
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume635
Early online date24 Apr 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2018

Fingerprint

environmental policy
Economics
Climate change
Trajectories
trajectory
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate
Decision making
socioeconomics
stakeholder
mitigation
decision making
climate change
economics
method
policy

Keywords

  • RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework
  • Integrated assessment
  • Multi-scale scenarios
  • Participatory approach
  • Coastal deltas
  • Migration and adaptation

Cite this

Kebede, Abiy S ; Nicholls, Robert J ; Allan, Andrew ; Arto, Iñaki ; Cazcarro, Ignacio ; Fernandes, Jose A ; Hill, Chris T ; Hutton, Craig W ; Kay, Susan ; Lázár, Attila N ; Macadam, Ian ; Palmer, Matthew ; Suckall, Natalie ; Tompkins, Emma L ; Vincent, Katharine ; Whitehead, Paul W. / Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale : A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach. In: Science of the Total Environment. 2018 ; Vol. 635. pp. 659-672.
@article{8bf7cf4a450842e4acdbf3bba1db513a,
title = "Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach",
abstract = "To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.",
keywords = "RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework, Integrated assessment, Multi-scale scenarios, Participatory approach, Coastal deltas, Migration and adaptation",
author = "Kebede, {Abiy S} and Nicholls, {Robert J} and Andrew Allan and I{\~n}aki Arto and Ignacio Cazcarro and Fernandes, {Jose A} and Hill, {Chris T} and Hutton, {Craig W} and Susan Kay and L{\'a}z{\'a}r, {Attila N} and Ian Macadam and Matthew Palmer and Natalie Suckall and Tompkins, {Emma L} and Katharine Vincent and Whitehead, {Paul W}",
note = "This work is carried out under the Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation (DECCMA) project (IDRC 107642) under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) programme with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC 1076422), Canada.",
year = "2018",
month = "9",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.368",
language = "English",
volume = "635",
pages = "659--672",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
issn = "0048-9697",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Kebede, AS, Nicholls, RJ, Allan, A, Arto, I, Cazcarro, I, Fernandes, JA, Hill, CT, Hutton, CW, Kay, S, Lázár, AN, Macadam, I, Palmer, M, Suckall, N, Tompkins, EL, Vincent, K & Whitehead, PW 2018, 'Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 635, pp. 659-672. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.368

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale : A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach. / Kebede, Abiy S (Lead / Corresponding author); Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 635, 01.09.2018, p. 659-672.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale

T2 - A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

AU - Kebede, Abiy S

AU - Nicholls, Robert J

AU - Allan, Andrew

AU - Arto, Iñaki

AU - Cazcarro, Ignacio

AU - Fernandes, Jose A

AU - Hill, Chris T

AU - Hutton, Craig W

AU - Kay, Susan

AU - Lázár, Attila N

AU - Macadam, Ian

AU - Palmer, Matthew

AU - Suckall, Natalie

AU - Tompkins, Emma L

AU - Vincent, Katharine

AU - Whitehead, Paul W

N1 - This work is carried out under the Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation (DECCMA) project (IDRC 107642) under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) programme with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC 1076422), Canada.

PY - 2018/9/1

Y1 - 2018/9/1

N2 - To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

AB - To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

KW - RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework

KW - Integrated assessment

KW - Multi-scale scenarios

KW - Participatory approach

KW - Coastal deltas

KW - Migration and adaptation

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.368

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.368

M3 - Article

C2 - 29680757

VL - 635

SP - 659

EP - 672

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

ER -