Asymmetric Volatility in Commodity Markets

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Abstract

The paper studies the return–volatility relationship in a range of commodities. We develop a
commodity price model and show that the volatility of price changes can be positively or
negatively related to demand shocks. An “inverse leverage effect”—the volatility is higher
following positive price shocks—is found in more than half of the daily spot prices. The effect is
weaker in the three-month futures market, the period after mid-2000s and monthly historical
volatility measures. Only crude oil exhibits a “leverage effect”—higher volatility follows a
negative shock—and the reason is explored in the context of its special market structure.
Original languageEnglish
Article number100139
JournalJournal of Commodity Markets
Early online date21 Apr 2020
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 21 Apr 2020

Keywords

  • Asymmetric volatility
  • commodity
  • inventory effect
  • JEL classification - G13; Q02; Q4
  • Commodity
  • Inventory effect

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