Bayesian sediment fingerprinting provides a robust tool for environmental forensic geoscience applications

Ingrid F. Small, John S. Rowan, Stewart W. Franks, Adam Wyatt, Robert W. Duck

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    22 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Sediment fingerprinting is an approach for the quantitative determination of sediment provenance (both spatial sources and types of sediment supply) over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Though widely adopted, studies often vary in their attention to the underlying assumptions and in their treatment of modelling uncertainty. A Bayesian approach to the multivariate problem of ‘unmixing’ sediment sources is reported, showing the significance of source group variability and source group sampling density to the accuracy of model output. The model produces results as median source group contributory coefficients (and associated 95% quantiles). The model was applied to environmental data obtained from selected soil erosion studies reported within the peer-reviewed literature. Good correspondence (r2=0.89) between reported mean source group contributory coefficients and median values were found when recalculated using the Bayesian analysis. However, confidence levels are highly variable, ranging from 2% to 97%. The robustness of any unmixing solution depends on factors such as the number of samples, the number of source groups and the variance of source group properties. It is concluded that ‘forensic-style’ investigations must recognize these uncertainties and be appropriately resourced to achieve tolerable accuracy and precision. The discussion considers additional confounding factors such as non-conservative tracer behaviour and enrichment/depletion during the sediment delivery process.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationForensic geoscience
    Subtitle of host publicationprinciples, techniques and applications
    EditorsK. Pye, D. J. Croft
    Place of PublicationLondon
    PublisherGeological Society
    Pages207-213
    ISBN (Print)1862391610
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2004

    Publication series

    NameGeological Society of London Special Publications
    PublisherGeological Society
    Number232

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  • Cite this

    Small, I. F., Rowan, J. S., Franks, S. W., Wyatt, A., & Duck, R. W. (2004). Bayesian sediment fingerprinting provides a robust tool for environmental forensic geoscience applications. In K. Pye, & D. J. Croft (Eds.), Forensic geoscience: principles, techniques and applications (pp. 207-213). (Geological Society of London Special Publications; No. 232). Geological Society. https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.2004.232.01.19