Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

TY - JOUR

T1 - Beyond predictions

T2 - biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

AU - Dawson, Terence P.

AU - Jackson, Stephen T.

AU - House, Joanna I.

AU - Prentice, Iain Colin

AU - Mace, Georgina M.

PY - 2011/4/1

Y1 - 2011/4/1

N2 - Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.

AB - Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.

KW - LATE QUATERNARY

KW - SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS

KW - ASSISTED COLONIZATION

KW - EXTINCTION RISK

KW - HABITAT MODELS

KW - RANGE SHIFTS

KW - RESPONSES

KW - POPULATIONS

KW - PLANT

KW - COMMUNITIES

U2 - 10.1126/science.1200303

DO - 10.1126/science.1200303

M3 - Review article

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 332

SP - 53

EP - 58

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6025

ER -