Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Senthold Asseng, Pierre Martre, Andrea Maiorano, Reimund P Rötter, Garry J O'Leary, Glenn J Fitzgerald, Christine Girousse, Rosella Motzo, Francesco Giunta, M Ali Babar, Matthew P Reynolds, Ahmed M S Kheir, Peter J Thorburn, Katharina Waha, Alex C Ruane, Pramod K Aggarwal, Mukhtar Ahmed, Juraj Balkovič, Bruno Basso, Christian BiernathMarco Bindi, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J Challinor, Giacomo De Sanctis, Benjamin Dumont, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Elias Fereres, Roberto Ferrise, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Yujing Gao, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, R César Izaurralde, Mohamed Jabloun, Curtis D Jones, Belay T Kassie, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Christian Klein, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Bing Liu, Sara Minoli, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Christoph Müller, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Taru Palosuo, John R Porter, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Mikhail A Semenov, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Marijn Van der Velde, Daniel Wallach, Enli Wang, Heidi Webber, Joost Wolf, Liujun Xiao, Zhao Zhang, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Zhu, Frank Ewert

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)155-173
Number of pages19
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume25
Issue number1
Early online date22 Nov 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

Fingerprint

Climate change
wheat
climate change
protein
Rain
Proteins
rainfall
Nutrition
crop production
Crops
nutrition
genotype
Nitrogen
temperature
Availability
Temperature
nitrogen
climate

Keywords

  • climate change adaptation
  • climate change impact
  • food security
  • grain protein
  • wheat

Cite this

Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rötter, R. P., O'Leary, G. J., Fitzgerald, G. J., ... Ewert, F. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 155-173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481
Asseng, Senthold ; Martre, Pierre ; Maiorano, Andrea ; Rötter, Reimund P ; O'Leary, Garry J ; Fitzgerald, Glenn J ; Girousse, Christine ; Motzo, Rosella ; Giunta, Francesco ; Babar, M Ali ; Reynolds, Matthew P ; Kheir, Ahmed M S ; Thorburn, Peter J ; Waha, Katharina ; Ruane, Alex C ; Aggarwal, Pramod K ; Ahmed, Mukhtar ; Balkovič, Juraj ; Basso, Bruno ; Biernath, Christian ; Bindi, Marco ; Cammarano, Davide ; Challinor, Andrew J ; De Sanctis, Giacomo ; Dumont, Benjamin ; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan ; Fereres, Elias ; Ferrise, Roberto ; Garcia-Vila, Margarita ; Gayler, Sebastian ; Gao, Yujing ; Horan, Heidi ; Hoogenboom, Gerrit ; Izaurralde, R César ; Jabloun, Mohamed ; Jones, Curtis D ; Kassie, Belay T ; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian ; Klein, Christian ; Koehler, Ann-Kristin ; Liu, Bing ; Minoli, Sara ; Montesino San Martin, Manuel ; Müller, Christoph ; Naresh Kumar, Soora ; Nendel, Claas ; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind ; Palosuo, Taru ; Porter, John R ; Priesack, Eckart ; Ripoche, Dominique ; Semenov, Mikhail A ; Stöckle, Claudio ; Stratonovitch, Pierre ; Streck, Thilo ; Supit, Iwan ; Tao, Fulu ; Van der Velde, Marijn ; Wallach, Daniel ; Wang, Enli ; Webber, Heidi ; Wolf, Joost ; Xiao, Liujun ; Zhang, Zhao ; Zhao, Zhigan ; Zhu, Yan ; Ewert, Frank. / Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. In: Global Change Biology. 2019 ; Vol. 25, No. 1. pp. 155-173.
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Asseng, S, Martre, P, Maiorano, A, Rötter, RP, O'Leary, GJ, Fitzgerald, GJ, Girousse, C, Motzo, R, Giunta, F, Babar, MA, Reynolds, MP, Kheir, AMS, Thorburn, PJ, Waha, K, Ruane, AC, Aggarwal, PK, Ahmed, M, Balkovič, J, Basso, B, Biernath, C, Bindi, M, Cammarano, D, Challinor, AJ, De Sanctis, G, Dumont, B, Eyshi Rezaei, E, Fereres, E, Ferrise, R, Garcia-Vila, M, Gayler, S, Gao, Y, Horan, H, Hoogenboom, G, Izaurralde, RC, Jabloun, M, Jones, CD, Kassie, BT, Kersebaum, K-C, Klein, C, Koehler, A-K, Liu, B, Minoli, S, Montesino San Martin, M, Müller, C, Naresh Kumar, S, Nendel, C, Olesen, JE, Palosuo, T, Porter, JR, Priesack, E, Ripoche, D, Semenov, MA, Stöckle, C, Stratonovitch, P, Streck, T, Supit, I, Tao, F, Van der Velde, M, Wallach, D, Wang, E, Webber, H, Wolf, J, Xiao, L, Zhang, Z, Zhao, Z, Zhu, Y & Ewert, F 2019, 'Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein', Global Change Biology, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 155-173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. / Asseng, Senthold; Martre, Pierre; Maiorano, Andrea; Rötter, Reimund P; O'Leary, Garry J; Fitzgerald, Glenn J; Girousse, Christine; Motzo, Rosella; Giunta, Francesco; Babar, M Ali; Reynolds, Matthew P; Kheir, Ahmed M S; Thorburn, Peter J; Waha, Katharina; Ruane, Alex C; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Ahmed, Mukhtar; Balkovič, Juraj; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Bindi, Marco; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andrew J; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Dumont, Benjamin; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Fereres, Elias; Ferrise, Roberto; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Gao, Yujing; Horan, Heidi; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Izaurralde, R César; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Liu, Bing; Minoli, Sara; Montesino San Martin, Manuel; Müller, Christoph; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind; Palosuo, Taru; Porter, John R; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Semenov, Mikhail A; Stöckle, Claudio; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Van der Velde, Marijn; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Enli; Webber, Heidi; Wolf, Joost; Xiao, Liujun; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan; Ewert, Frank.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, No. 1, 01.2019, p. 155-173.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

AU - Asseng, Senthold

AU - Martre, Pierre

AU - Maiorano, Andrea

AU - Rötter, Reimund P

AU - O'Leary, Garry J

AU - Fitzgerald, Glenn J

AU - Girousse, Christine

AU - Motzo, Rosella

AU - Giunta, Francesco

AU - Babar, M Ali

AU - Reynolds, Matthew P

AU - Kheir, Ahmed M S

AU - Thorburn, Peter J

AU - Waha, Katharina

AU - Ruane, Alex C

AU - Aggarwal, Pramod K

AU - Ahmed, Mukhtar

AU - Balkovič, Juraj

AU - Basso, Bruno

AU - Biernath, Christian

AU - Bindi, Marco

AU - Cammarano, Davide

AU - Challinor, Andrew J

AU - De Sanctis, Giacomo

AU - Dumont, Benjamin

AU - Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan

AU - Fereres, Elias

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Garcia-Vila, Margarita

AU - Gayler, Sebastian

AU - Gao, Yujing

AU - Horan, Heidi

AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit

AU - Izaurralde, R César

AU - Jabloun, Mohamed

AU - Jones, Curtis D

AU - Kassie, Belay T

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian

AU - Klein, Christian

AU - Koehler, Ann-Kristin

AU - Liu, Bing

AU - Minoli, Sara

AU - Montesino San Martin, Manuel

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Naresh Kumar, Soora

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

AU - Palosuo, Taru

AU - Porter, John R

AU - Priesack, Eckart

AU - Ripoche, Dominique

AU - Semenov, Mikhail A

AU - Stöckle, Claudio

AU - Stratonovitch, Pierre

AU - Streck, Thilo

AU - Supit, Iwan

AU - Tao, Fulu

AU - Van der Velde, Marijn

AU - Wallach, Daniel

AU - Wang, Enli

AU - Webber, Heidi

AU - Wolf, Joost

AU - Xiao, Liujun

AU - Zhang, Zhao

AU - Zhao, Zhigan

AU - Zhu, Yan

AU - Ewert, Frank

PY - 2019/1

Y1 - 2019/1

N2 - Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

AB - Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

KW - climate change adaptation

KW - climate change impact

KW - food security

KW - grain protein

KW - wheat

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14481

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14481

M3 - Article

C2 - 30549200

VL - 25

SP - 155

EP - 173

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 1

ER -

Asseng S, Martre P, Maiorano A, Rötter RP, O'Leary GJ, Fitzgerald GJ et al. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology. 2019 Jan;25(1):155-173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481