Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Senthold Asseng; Pierre Martre; Andrea Maiorano; Reimund P Rötter; Garry J O'Leary; Glenn J Fitzgerald; Christine Girousse; Rosella Motzo; Francesco Giunta; M Ali Babar; Matthew P Reynolds; Ahmed M S Kheir; Peter J Thorburn; Katharina Waha; Alex C Ruane; Pramod K Aggarwal; Mukhtar Ahmed; Juraj Balkovič; Bruno Basso; Christian Biernath; Marco Bindi; Davide Cammarano; Andrew J Challinor; Giacomo De Sanctis; Benjamin Dumont; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Elias Fereres; Roberto Ferrise; Margarita Garcia-Vila; Sebastian Gayler; Yujing Gao; Heidi Horan; Gerrit Hoogenboom; R César Izaurralde; Mohamed Jabloun; Curtis D Jones; Belay T Kassie; Kurt-Christian Kersebaum; Christian Klein; Ann-Kristin Koehler; Bing Liu; Sara Minoli; Manuel Montesino San Martin; Christoph Müller; Soora Naresh Kumar; Claas Nendel; Jørgen Eivind Olesen; Taru Palosuo; John R Porter; Eckart Priesack; Dominique Ripoche; Mikhail A Semenov; Claudio Stöckle; Pierre Stratonovitch; Thilo Streck; Iwan Supit; Fulu Tao; Marijn Van der Velde; Daniel Wallach; Enli Wang; Heidi Webber; Joost Wolf; Liujun Xiao; Zhao Zhang; Zhigan Zhao; Yan Zhu; Frank Ewert

doi:10.1111/gcb.14481

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Senthold Asseng, Pierre Martre, Andrea Maiorano, Reimund P Rötter, Garry J O'Leary, Glenn J Fitzgerald, Christine Girousse, Rosella Motzo, Francesco Giunta, M Ali Babar, Matthew P Reynolds, Ahmed M S Kheir, Peter J Thorburn, Katharina Waha, Alex C Ruane, Pramod K Aggarwal, Mukhtar Ahmed, Juraj Balkovič, Bruno Basso, Christian BiernathMarco Bindi, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J Challinor, Giacomo De Sanctis, Benjamin Dumont, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Elias Fereres, Roberto Ferrise, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Yujing Gao, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, R César Izaurralde, Mohamed Jabloun, Curtis D Jones, Belay T Kassie, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Christian Klein, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Bing Liu, Sara Minoli, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Christoph Müller, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Taru Palosuo, John R Porter, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Mikhail A Semenov, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Marijn Van der Velde, Daniel Wallach, Enli Wang, Heidi Webber, Joost Wolf, Liujun Xiao, Zhao Zhang, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Zhu, Frank Ewert

Plant Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

326 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	155-173
Number of pages	19
Journal	Global Change Biology
Volume	25
Issue number	1
Early online date	22 Nov 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481
Publication status	Published - Jan 2019

Keywords

climate change adaptation
climate change impact
food security
grain protein
wheat

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Environmental Chemistry
Ecology
General Environmental Science

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rötter, R. P., O'Leary, G. J., Fitzgerald, G. J., Girousse, C., Motzo, R., Giunta, F., Babar, M. A., Reynolds, M. P., Kheir, A. M. S., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Ruane, A. C., Aggarwal, P. K., Ahmed, M., Balkovič, J., Basso, B., ... Ewert, F. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 155-173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481

@article{f45607830daf4126a5543ab72591452e,

title = "Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein",

abstract = "Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.",

keywords = "climate change adaptation, climate change impact, food security, grain protein, wheat",

author = "Senthold Asseng and Pierre Martre and Andrea Maiorano and R{\"o}tter, {Reimund P} and O'Leary, {Garry J} and Fitzgerald, {Glenn J} and Christine Girousse and Rosella Motzo and Francesco Giunta and Babar, {M Ali} and Reynolds, {Matthew P} and Kheir, {Ahmed M S} and Thorburn, {Peter J} and Katharina Waha and Ruane, {Alex C} and Aggarwal, {Pramod K} and Mukhtar Ahmed and Juraj Balkovi{\v c} and Bruno Basso and Christian Biernath and Marco Bindi and Davide Cammarano and Challinor, {Andrew J} and {De Sanctis}, Giacomo and Benjamin Dumont and {Eyshi Rezaei}, Ehsan and Elias Fereres and Roberto Ferrise and Margarita Garcia-Vila and Sebastian Gayler and Yujing Gao and Heidi Horan and Gerrit Hoogenboom and Izaurralde, {R C{\'e}sar} and Mohamed Jabloun and Jones, {Curtis D} and Kassie, {Belay T} and Kurt-Christian Kersebaum and Christian Klein and Ann-Kristin Koehler and Bing Liu and Sara Minoli and {Montesino San Martin}, Manuel and Christoph M{\"u}ller and {Naresh Kumar}, Soora and Claas Nendel and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen Eivind} and Taru Palosuo and Porter, {John R} and Eckart Priesack and Dominique Ripoche and Semenov, {Mikhail A} and Claudio St{\"o}ckle and Pierre Stratonovitch and Thilo Streck and Iwan Supit and Fulu Tao and {Van der Velde}, Marijn and Daniel Wallach and Enli Wang and Heidi Webber and Joost Wolf and Liujun Xiao and Zhao Zhang and Zhigan Zhao and Yan Zhu and Frank Ewert",

year = "2019",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1111/gcb.14481",

language = "English",

volume = "25",

pages = "155--173",

journal = "Global Change Biology",

issn = "1354-1013",

publisher = "Wiley",

number = "1",

}

Asseng, S, Martre, P, Maiorano, A, Rötter, RP, O'Leary, GJ, Fitzgerald, GJ, Girousse, C, Motzo, R, Giunta, F, Babar, MA, Reynolds, MP, Kheir, AMS, Thorburn, PJ, Waha, K, Ruane, AC, Aggarwal, PK, Ahmed, M, Balkovič, J, Basso, B, Biernath, C, Bindi, M, Cammarano, D, Challinor, AJ, De Sanctis, G, Dumont, B, Eyshi Rezaei, E, Fereres, E, Ferrise, R, Garcia-Vila, M, Gayler, S, Gao, Y, Horan, H, Hoogenboom, G, Izaurralde, RC, Jabloun, M, Jones, CD, Kassie, BT, Kersebaum, K-C, Klein, C, Koehler, A-K, Liu, B, Minoli, S, Montesino San Martin, M, Müller, C, Naresh Kumar, S, Nendel, C, Olesen, JE, Palosuo, T, Porter, JR, Priesack, E, Ripoche, D, Semenov, MA, Stöckle, C, Stratonovitch, P, Streck, T, Supit, I, Tao, F, Van der Velde, M, Wallach, D, Wang, E, Webber, H, Wolf, J, Xiao, L, Zhang, Z, Zhao, Z, Zhu, Y & Ewert, F 2019, 'Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein', Global Change Biology, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 155-173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

AU - Asseng, Senthold

AU - Martre, Pierre

AU - Maiorano, Andrea

AU - Rötter, Reimund P

AU - O'Leary, Garry J

AU - Fitzgerald, Glenn J

AU - Girousse, Christine

AU - Motzo, Rosella

AU - Giunta, Francesco

AU - Babar, M Ali

AU - Reynolds, Matthew P

AU - Kheir, Ahmed M S

AU - Thorburn, Peter J

AU - Waha, Katharina

AU - Ruane, Alex C

AU - Aggarwal, Pramod K

AU - Ahmed, Mukhtar

AU - Balkovič, Juraj

AU - Basso, Bruno

AU - Biernath, Christian

AU - Bindi, Marco

AU - Cammarano, Davide

AU - Challinor, Andrew J

AU - De Sanctis, Giacomo

AU - Dumont, Benjamin

AU - Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan

AU - Fereres, Elias

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Garcia-Vila, Margarita

AU - Gayler, Sebastian

AU - Gao, Yujing

AU - Horan, Heidi

AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit

AU - Izaurralde, R César

AU - Jabloun, Mohamed

AU - Jones, Curtis D

AU - Kassie, Belay T

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian

AU - Klein, Christian

AU - Koehler, Ann-Kristin

AU - Liu, Bing

AU - Minoli, Sara

AU - Montesino San Martin, Manuel

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Naresh Kumar, Soora

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

AU - Palosuo, Taru

AU - Porter, John R

AU - Priesack, Eckart

AU - Ripoche, Dominique

AU - Semenov, Mikhail A

AU - Stöckle, Claudio

AU - Stratonovitch, Pierre

AU - Streck, Thilo

AU - Supit, Iwan

AU - Tao, Fulu

AU - Van der Velde, Marijn

AU - Wallach, Daniel

AU - Wang, Enli

AU - Webber, Heidi

AU - Wolf, Joost

AU - Xiao, Liujun

AU - Zhang, Zhao

AU - Zhao, Zhigan

AU - Zhu, Yan

AU - Ewert, Frank

PY - 2019/1

Y1 - 2019/1

N2 - Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

AB - Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

KW - climate change adaptation

KW - climate change impact

KW - food security

KW - grain protein

KW - wheat

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14481

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14481

M3 - Article

C2 - 30549200

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 25

SP - 155

EP - 173

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 1

ER -

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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