Coffee futures: role in reducing coffee producers' price risk

Sushil Mohan, James Love

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    16 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The paper investigates whether coffee producers can benefit by taking coffee production/marketing decisions on the basis of coffee futures forecasts. The methodology employed is to match futures and spot prices for the coffee futures contract traded at the international commodity exchanges. Regression analysis demonstrates that changes in spot prices are not explained by changes in lagged futures prices. On the contrary, it emerges that futures prices tend to adapt to the prevailing spot prices. The deviations of the spot prices from the lagged futures prices are over 30?per?cent on average and they do not follow any systematic pattern. Therefore, the hypothesis that coffee futures market information could benefit coffee producers cannot be empirically supported.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)983-1002
    Number of pages20
    JournalJournal of International Development
    Volume16
    Issue number7
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2004

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