Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death

AU - Schrage, Benedikt

AU - Geelhoed, Bastiaan

AU - Niiranen, Teemu J.

AU - Gianfagna, Francesco

AU - Vishram-Nielsen, Julie K. K.

AU - Costanzo, Simona

AU - Söderberg, Stefan

AU - Ojeda, Francisco M.

AU - Vartiainen, Erkki

AU - Donati, Maria Benedetta

AU - Magnussen, Christina

AU - Di Castelnuovo, Augusto

AU - Camen, Stephan

AU - Kontto, Jukka

AU - Koenig, Wolfgang

AU - Blankenberg, Stefan

AU - de Gaetano, Giovanni

AU - Linneberg, Allan

AU - Jørgensen, Torben

AU - Zeller, Tanja

AU - Kuulasmaa, Kari

AU - Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh

AU - Hughes, Maria

AU - Iacoviello, Licia

AU - Salomaa, Veikko

AU - Schnabel, Renate B.

PY - 2020/5/5

Y1 - 2020/5/5

N2 - Background: Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality.Methods and Results: In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk.Conclusions: Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.

AB - Background: Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality.Methods and Results: In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk.Conclusions: Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.

KW - risk factors

KW - population

KW - biomarkers

KW - heart failure

KW - atrial fibrillation

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85084272978

U2 - 10.1161/JAHA.119.015218

DO - 10.1161/JAHA.119.015218

M3 - Article

C2 - 32351154

SN - 2047-9980

VL - 9

JO - Journal of the American Heart Association Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease (JAHA)

JF - Journal of the American Heart Association Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease (JAHA)

IS - 9

M1 - e015218

ER -