Comparison of Outlooks and Implications for Energy Transition

The global economy is experiencing a transition from high-carbon energy resources to low-carbon resources. To shed light on the trajectory of the future energy system, we compare three influential outlooks made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), BP and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy. Ultimately an energy transition is determined by technology and economics, but influenced by government policies. We highlight two technological challenges affecting the speed and scope of renewables penetration in the transportation and electric power sector. Our analysis about the total cost of driving indicates that at the current levels of battery prices and vehicle efficiency, only short-range electric vehicles can be cost-competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles when the crude oil price is above $64/bbl. By contrast, wind and solar photovoltaics are becoming increasingly cost-competitive with natural gas in electric power generation. Yet the intermittency issue remains a challenge, since it requires a high level of back-up power and a large quantity of ramp-up resources.