Methods: BIOSTAT-CHF is a research program designed to develop and externally validate risk-models to predict all-cause mortality and HF-hospitalizations. The index
cohort consisted of 2,516 patients with HF from 69 centres in 11 European countries. The external validation cohort consisted of 1,728 comparable patients from 6 centres in Scotland, UK
Results: Patients from the index cohort had a mean age of 69 years, 27% were female, 83% were in NYHA class II-III and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 31%. The full prediction models for mortality, HF-hospitalization and the combined outcome, yielded c-statistic values of 0.73, 0.69, and 0.71 respectively. Predictors of mortality and HF-hospitalization were remarkably different. The 5 strongest predictors of mortality were a greater age, higher BUN and NT-proBNP, lower hemoglobin and failure to prescribe a beta-blocker. The 5 strongest predictors of HF-hospitalization were greater age, previous HF-hospitalization, presence of edema, lower SBP and lower eGFR. Patients from the validation cohort were 74 years, 34% were women, 85% were in NYHA II-III and mean LVEF was 41%; c-statistic values for the full and compact model were comparable to the index cohort.
Conclusion: A small number of variables, which are usually readily available in the routine clinical setting, provide useful prognostic information for patients with heart
failure. Predictors of mortality were remarkably different from predictors of HF-hospitalization.
- heart failure
- prediction model
- Heart failure hospitalization