Domain Led Time Series Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Using Open Data - Does Reduction in Coronary Disease Increase Heart Failure Prevalence?

Accessing healthcare data for research purposes is lengthy and requires a data controller and ethical approval. There are, however, open data that exist in the public domain that can be freely accessed and used for research purposes. We performed a time series analysis of cardiovascular disease trends in Northern Ireland during the years 2010-2020. We accessed the Raw Disease Prevalence Data for NI from the Quality Outcomes Framework (QOF) published on the government website. Statistical analysis was performed to explore trends in prevalence for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF). Data analysis was performed using MATLAB version R2021b. There was a significant increase in the prevalence of patients with HF and AF against a steady decrease of coronary artery disease prevalence in NI population. The prevalence of HF was higher in GP practices located more than 60 minutes drive from two primary PCI centers in NI. Our analysis shows that publicly available data have useful research value when research questions are asked by clinical experts.