Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 293: Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair

Alasdair Brown (Lead / Corresponding author), Dooruj Rambaccussing, J. James Reade, Giambattista Rossi

    Research output: Working paper

    Abstract

    Information extracted from social media has been used by academics, and increasingly by practitioners, to predict stock returns. But to what extent does social media output predict asset fundamentals, and not simply short-term returns? In this paper we analyse 13.8m posts on Twitter, and high-frequency betting data from Betfair, concerning English Premier League soccer matches in 2013/14. Crucially, asset fundamentals are revealed at the end of play. We find that the Tweets of certain journalists, and the tone of all Tweets, contain fundamental information not revealed in betting prices. In particular, Tweets aid in the interpretation of news during matches.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationDundee
    PublisherUniversity of Dundee, Department of Economic Studies
    Number of pages32
    Publication statusPublished - 17 Feb 2016

    Publication series

    NameDundee Discussion Papers in Economics
    PublisherUniversity of Dundee, Department of Economic Studies
    No.293
    ISSN (Print)1473-236X

    Keywords

    • Social media
    • Prediction markets
    • Fundamentals
    • Sentiment
    • Mispricing

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