TY - JOUR
T1 - Emerging Stock Markets
T2 - A More Realistic Assessment of the Gains from Diversification
AU - Fifield, Suzanne
AU - Power, David
AU - Sinclair, C. D.
PY - 2002
Y1 - 2002
N2 - Over the last decade, a number of studies have examined the costs and benefits from investing in equities traded on emerging stock markets (ESMs). The general conclusion to emerge from these studies is that investors have been able to improve portfolio performance significantly by including an emerging equity market component in investment portfolios. However, the ex-post framework utilized in past analyses potentially overstates the true level of gains which can be obtained from an emerging market diversification strategy; they are computed on the assumption that, with respect to the inputs to the portfolio decision, investors are blessed with perfect foresight. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by estimating the ex-ante gains available from investing in emerging stock markets. In particular, the paper investigates whether, by using a simple strategy based on historical data to forecast portfolio inputs, all of the gains which are available from ex-post analyses of diversification can be achieved in practice. The results obtained point overwhelmingly to the inadvisability of relying on historical data to identify ex-ante optimal emerging market portfolios; the strategies examined in this paper achieved very few of the gains attained in ex-post analyses of diversification.
AB - Over the last decade, a number of studies have examined the costs and benefits from investing in equities traded on emerging stock markets (ESMs). The general conclusion to emerge from these studies is that investors have been able to improve portfolio performance significantly by including an emerging equity market component in investment portfolios. However, the ex-post framework utilized in past analyses potentially overstates the true level of gains which can be obtained from an emerging market diversification strategy; they are computed on the assumption that, with respect to the inputs to the portfolio decision, investors are blessed with perfect foresight. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by estimating the ex-ante gains available from investing in emerging stock markets. In particular, the paper investigates whether, by using a simple strategy based on historical data to forecast portfolio inputs, all of the gains which are available from ex-post analyses of diversification can be achieved in practice. The results obtained point overwhelmingly to the inadvisability of relying on historical data to identify ex-ante optimal emerging market portfolios; the strategies examined in this paper achieved very few of the gains attained in ex-post analyses of diversification.
U2 - 10.1080/09603100110090082
DO - 10.1080/09603100110090082
M3 - Article
SN - 0960-3107
VL - 12
SP - 213
EP - 229
JO - Applied Financial Economics
JF - Applied Financial Economics
IS - 3
ER -