Evidence on optimal risk allocation models for Indonesian geothermal projects under PPP contracts

This study explores risk allocation in Indonesia's public-private partnerships for geothermal energy development. Such activity involves significant upfront investment, but no definitive and transparent risk-sharing mechanisms that suitably incentivise the private sector have emerged in the literature. In the study, we develop an evidence-based framework founded on principal-agency theorising that suggests an optimal allocation of risk between the public and private parties in these arrangements. A Delphi survey is employed to identify the views of a group of experts, with the evidence pointing to a clear pattern in identifying high-risk factors and optimal risk-sharing arrangements. Suggested risk-bearing levels for the Indonesian government range between 100% (for legal and regulatory exposures) to 0% in an operational and maintenance risk context. Risks relating to resource and exploration, finance and credit, as well as field development and construction issues, are viewed as being optimally shared between the parties, with the expert panel suggesting that the public sector should retain more exposure where high criticality risk factors exist. The proposed risk allocations reflect both evidenced outcomes and prior contention regarding the risks around geothermal investments and thereby provide the potential for developing meaningful schematics that enable Indonesia to exploit the resources concerned more fully.