Exploring Emerging Fields: Applying Bibliometric Approaches to Technology Foresight

This paper explores the potential contribution bibliometric analyses can make to technology foresight. We explore a number of approaches, such as overlay mapping, co-citation analysis, and bibliographic coupling, to map emergent trajectories of novel technologies. The different analyses offer snapshots of the emergent field at different periods in time. Applying cluster analysis at the different stages allows us to different identify topical areas. Comparing these thematic clusters allows us to identify ‘emergent irreversibilities’. Triangulating them allows to identify an emergent path or trajectory. We argue such an integrated approach can be used as input into foresight approaches. We use Big Data as a case to illustrate the underlying rationale for the suggested approach. The proposed techniques may be relevant in terms of developing corporate thinking and strategy making with regards to investing in new technology fields. They may also help other stakeholders to appreciate the development of new industries better.