Exploring temporality in socio-ecological resilience through experiences of the 2015–16 El Niño across the Tropics

Stephen Whitfield (Lead / Corresponding author), Emilie Beauchamp, Doreen S. Boyd, David Burslem, Anja Byg, Francis Colledge, Mark Cutler, Mengitsu Didena, Andrew Dougill, Giles Foody, Jasmin A. Godbold, Mirjam Hazenbosch, Mark Hirons, Chinwe Ifejika Speranza, Eleanor Jew, Carmen Lacambra, David Mkwambisi, Awdenegest Moges, Alexandra Morel, Rebecca MorrisPaula Novo, Mario Enrique Rueda Hernández, Harriet Smith, Martin Solan, Thomas Spencer, Anne Thornton, Julia Touza, Piran C. L. White

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    25 Citations (Scopus)
    162 Downloads (Pure)


    In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015-16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term ‘event’ occurred. In each case, details of the socioecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both longterm historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lockins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-14
    Number of pages14
    JournalGlobal Environmental Change
    Early online date23 Jan 2019
    Publication statusPublished - Mar 2019


    • Climate change
    • Ecosystems
    • Perturbations
    • Resistance
    • Societies
    • Temporal dynamics
    • Variability

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Global and Planetary Change
    • Geography, Planning and Development
    • Ecology
    • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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