Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers

Dooruj Rambaccussing (Lead / Corresponding author), Andrzej Kwiatkowski

Research output: Contribution to journalSpecial issue

Abstract

We investigate the performance of newspapers for forecasting inflation, output and unemployment in the United Kingdom. We concentrate on whether the economic policy content reported in popular printed media can improve on existing point forecasts. We find no evidence supporting improved nowcasts or short-term forecasts for inflation. The sentiment inferred from printed media, can however be useful for forecasting unemployment and output. Considerable improvements are also noted when using individual newspapers and keyword based indices.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages16
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Early online date18 May 2020
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 18 May 2020

Keywords

  • Textual Econometrics
  • Economic Sentiments
  • Economic News
  • Inflation
  • Inflation Reports
  • Output growth
  • Newpapers
  • Textual econometrics
  • Economic news
  • Newspapers
  • Inflation reports
  • Economic sentiments

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