Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope-scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process-based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope-scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: As an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty.