Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The Case of the Bank of England's MPC

TY - UNPB

T1 - Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty

T2 - The Case of the Bank of England's MPC

AU - Bhattacharjee, Arnab

AU - Holly, Sean

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - The transparency and openness of the monetary policymaking process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee and the information on which they are based. In this paper we consider this decision making process in the context of a model in which inflation forecast targeting is used but there is heterogeneity among the members of the committee. We find that internally generated forecasts of output and market generated expectations of medium term inflation provide the best description of discrete changes in interest rates. We also find a role for asset prices through the equity market, foreign exchange market and housing prices. There are also identifiable forms of heterogeneity among members of the committee that improves the predictability of interest rate changes. This can be thought of as supporting the argument that full transparency of monetary policy decision making can be welfare enhancing.

AB - The transparency and openness of the monetary policymaking process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee and the information on which they are based. In this paper we consider this decision making process in the context of a model in which inflation forecast targeting is used but there is heterogeneity among the members of the committee. We find that internally generated forecasts of output and market generated expectations of medium term inflation provide the best description of discrete changes in interest rates. We also find a role for asset prices through the equity market, foreign exchange market and housing prices. There are also identifiable forms of heterogeneity among members of the committee that improves the predictability of interest rate changes. This can be thought of as supporting the argument that full transparency of monetary policy decision making can be welfare enhancing.

KW - Monetary policy

KW - Interest rates

KW - Monetary Policy Committee

KW - committee decision making

M3 - Working paper

T3 - CDMA Working Paper Series

BT - Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty

PB - Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis

CY - St. Andrews

ER -