Longitudinal serological analysis and neutralizing antibody levels in Coronavirus disease 2019 convalescent patients

BACKGROUND: Understanding the longitudinal trajectory of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies is crucial for diagnosis of prior infection and predicting future immunity. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 convalescent patients, with neutralizing antibody assays and SARS-CoV-2 serological assay platforms using SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) or nucleocapsid (N) antigens. RESULTS: Sensitivities of serological assays in diagnosing prior SARS-CoV-2 infection changed with time. One widely used commercial platform that had an initial sensitivity of >95% declined to 71% at 81-100 days after diagnosis. The trajectories of median binding antibody titers measured over approximately 3-4 months were not dependent on the use of SARS-CoV-2 N or S proteins as antigen. The median neutralization titer decreased by approximately 45% per month. Each serological assay gave quantitative antibody titers that were correlated with SARS-CoV-2 neutralization titers, but S-based serological assay measurements better predicted neutralization potency. Correlation between S-binding and neutralization titers deteriorated with time, and decreases in neutralization titers were not predicted by changes in S-binding antibody titers. CONCLUSIONS: Different SARS-CoV-2 serological assays are more or less well suited for surveillance versus prediction of serum neutralization potency. Extended follow-up should facilitate the establishment of appropriate serological correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection.