TY - JOUR
T1 - Mathematical models of transmission dynamics and vaccine strategies in Hong Kong during the 2017 - 2018 winter influenza season
AU - Ho, Shing Hei
AU - He, Daihai
AU - Eftimie, Raluca
N1 - DH is supported by the Early Career Scheme from Hong Kong Research Grants Council (PolyU 251001/14M).
PY - 2019/9/7
Y1 - 2019/9/7
N2 - Two mathematical models described by simple ordinary differential equations are developed to investigate the Hong Kong influenza epidemic during 2017–2018 winter, based on overall epidemic dynamics and different influenza subtypes. The first model, describing the overall epidemic dynamics, provides the starting data for the second model which different influenza subtypes, and whose dynamics is further investigated. Weekly data from December 2017 to May 2018 are obtained from the data base of the Centre of Health Protection in Hong Kong, and used to parametrise the models. With the help of these models, we investigate the impact of different vaccination strategies and determine the corresponding critical vaccination coverage for different vaccine efficacies. The results suggest that at least 72% of Hong Kong population should have been vaccinated during 2017–2018 winter to prevent the seasonal epidemic by herd immunity (while data showed that only a maximum of 11.6% of the population were vaccinated). Our results also show that the critical vaccination coverage decreases with increasing vaccine efficacy, and the increase in one influenza subtype vaccine efficacy may lead to an increase in infections caused by a different subtype.
AB - Two mathematical models described by simple ordinary differential equations are developed to investigate the Hong Kong influenza epidemic during 2017–2018 winter, based on overall epidemic dynamics and different influenza subtypes. The first model, describing the overall epidemic dynamics, provides the starting data for the second model which different influenza subtypes, and whose dynamics is further investigated. Weekly data from December 2017 to May 2018 are obtained from the data base of the Centre of Health Protection in Hong Kong, and used to parametrise the models. With the help of these models, we investigate the impact of different vaccination strategies and determine the corresponding critical vaccination coverage for different vaccine efficacies. The results suggest that at least 72% of Hong Kong population should have been vaccinated during 2017–2018 winter to prevent the seasonal epidemic by herd immunity (while data showed that only a maximum of 11.6% of the population were vaccinated). Our results also show that the critical vaccination coverage decreases with increasing vaccine efficacy, and the increase in one influenza subtype vaccine efficacy may lead to an increase in infections caused by a different subtype.
KW - Influenza
KW - SVIR model
KW - Vaccination coverage
KW - Vaccine efficacy
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85066931149&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.013
DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.013
M3 - Article
C2 - 31128142
VL - 476
SP - 74
EP - 94
JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology
JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology
SN - 0022-5193
ER -