Modeling housing prices using a present value state space model

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution


    This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics
    of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets.
    According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio
    should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent
    growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow
    an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US
    and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given
    the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and boot-
    strapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly
    persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is con-
    sidered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high sta-
    tistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the
    present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the
    UK housing markets.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationNordic Econometric Network
    Publication statusPublished - May 2015
    Event8th Nordic Econometric Meeting - University of Helsinki, Arkadiankatu 7 (Economicum Building), Helsinki, Finland
    Duration: 28 May 201530 May 2015


    Conference8th Nordic Econometric Meeting
    Abbreviated titleNEM2015
    Internet address


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