Modelling energy demand of developing countries

Are the specific features adequately captured?

Subhes C. Bhattacharyya, Govinda R. Timilsina

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    54 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1979-1990
    Number of pages12
    JournalEnergy Policy
    Volume38
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Apr 2010

    Cite this

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. ; Timilsina, Govinda R. / Modelling energy demand of developing countries : Are the specific features adequately captured?. In: Energy Policy. 2010 ; Vol. 38, No. 4. pp. 1979-1990.
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    Modelling energy demand of developing countries : Are the specific features adequately captured? / Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.

    In: Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 4, 04.2010, p. 1979-1990.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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