Modelling future landscape change on coastal floodplains using a rule-based GIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling future landscape change on coastal floodplains using a rule-based GIS

AU - Brown, Iain

PY - 2006/10

Y1 - 2006/10

N2 - A large-scale, strategic-level method has been developed to facilitate dialogue with policymakers on future coastal land-use management, in the context of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise for floodplain areas. Impacts from different management policies are explored through their influence on patterns of flooding and consequent landscape change. The method is based upon a series of transition rules linking frequency of inundation by the sea to changes in land use and land cover at key threshold values. A high-resolution digital elevation model derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) provides the topographic information required for relating sea-level rise to tidal and flood frequency limits. The rule-based approach allows a rapid evaluation of multiple policy options and critical assumptions can be made more transparent and responsive to end-users than with conventional modelling approaches. A case study example is provided from the North Norfolk coast in eastern England, where the results imply that future sea-level rise has much broader policy implications for the human and ecological landscape than just flood risk to property.

AB - A large-scale, strategic-level method has been developed to facilitate dialogue with policymakers on future coastal land-use management, in the context of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise for floodplain areas. Impacts from different management policies are explored through their influence on patterns of flooding and consequent landscape change. The method is based upon a series of transition rules linking frequency of inundation by the sea to changes in land use and land cover at key threshold values. A high-resolution digital elevation model derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) provides the topographic information required for relating sea-level rise to tidal and flood frequency limits. The rule-based approach allows a rapid evaluation of multiple policy options and critical assumptions can be made more transparent and responsive to end-users than with conventional modelling approaches. A case study example is provided from the North Norfolk coast in eastern England, where the results imply that future sea-level rise has much broader policy implications for the human and ecological landscape than just flood risk to property.

KW - Climate change

KW - Coasts

KW - GIS

KW - Land cover

KW - Rule-base

KW - Sea-level rise

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.011

DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.011

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:33745854206

SN - 1364-8152

VL - 21

SP - 1479

EP - 1490

JO - Environmental Modelling and Software

JF - Environmental Modelling and Software

IS - 10

ER -