Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland

Jack Stone (Lead / Corresponding author), Natasha K. Martin, Matthew Hickman, Sharon Hutchinson, Esther Aspinall, Avril Taylor, Alison Munro, Karen Dunleavy, Erica Peters, Peter Bramley, Peter C. Hayes, David J. Goldberg, Peter Vickerman

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Abstract

Background/Aims: People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We evaluate the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission amongst PWID, and the impact of prison-related prevention interventions, including scaling-up direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.

Design: Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.

Setting: Scotland; where national survey data indicates lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 vs 7.3 per 100py), but a 2.3-fold elevated transmission risk amongst recently released (16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95%CrI 38.0-51.3%) and 45.5% (95%CrI 39.3-51.0%), respectively.

Conclusions: Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison-release can contribute significantly to HCV transmission amongst PWID. Scaling-up HCV treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1302-1317
Number of pages13
JournalAddiction
Volume112
Issue number7
Early online date3 Mar 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Jun 2017

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Prisons
Scotland
Hepacivirus
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Incidence
Calibration
Antiviral Agents

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Stone, J., Martin, N. K., Hickman, M., Hutchinson, S., Aspinall, E., Taylor, A., ... Vickerman, P. (2017). Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland. Addiction, 112(7), 1302-1317. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.13783
Stone, Jack ; Martin, Natasha K. ; Hickman, Matthew ; Hutchinson, Sharon ; Aspinall, Esther ; Taylor, Avril ; Munro, Alison ; Dunleavy, Karen ; Peters, Erica ; Bramley, Peter ; Hayes, Peter C. ; Goldberg, David J. ; Vickerman, Peter. / Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland. In: Addiction. 2017 ; Vol. 112, No. 7. pp. 1302-1317.
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title = "Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland",
abstract = "Background/Aims: People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We evaluate the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission amongst PWID, and the impact of prison-related prevention interventions, including scaling-up direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.Design: Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.Setting: Scotland; where national survey data indicates lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 vs 7.3 per 100py), but a 2.3-fold elevated transmission risk amongst recently released (16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6{\%} (95{\%}CrI 38.0-51.3{\%}) and 45.5{\%} (95{\%}CrI 39.3-51.0{\%}), respectively.Conclusions: Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison-release can contribute significantly to HCV transmission amongst PWID. Scaling-up HCV treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.",
author = "Jack Stone and Martin, {Natasha K.} and Matthew Hickman and Sharon Hutchinson and Esther Aspinall and Avril Taylor and Alison Munro and Karen Dunleavy and Erica Peters and Peter Bramley and Hayes, {Peter C.} and Goldberg, {David J.} and Peter Vickerman",
note = "This work was supported through a research grant from Gilead Sciences. Gilead had no influence on the design, analysis and content of the study. J.S. acknowledges funding from a PhD scholarship from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). N.K.M., P.V. and M.H. acknowledge funding from National Institute for Drug Abuse R01 DA037773-01A1. NK.M. acknowledges research funding from the National Institute for Drug Abuse (R01 DA037773-01A1) and the University of California San Diego Center for AIDS Research(CFAR), an NIH-funded program (P30 AI036214), which is supported by the following NIH Institutes and Centers: NIAID, NCI, NIMH, NIDA, NICHD, NHLBI, NIA, NIGMS, and NIDDK. M.H. and P.V. acknowledge funding by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions at University of Bristol. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK National Health Service (NHS), NIHR or the Department of Health.",
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Stone, J, Martin, NK, Hickman, M, Hutchinson, S, Aspinall, E, Taylor, A, Munro, A, Dunleavy, K, Peters, E, Bramley, P, Hayes, PC, Goldberg, DJ & Vickerman, P 2017, 'Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland', Addiction, vol. 112, no. 7, pp. 1302-1317. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.13783

Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland. / Stone, Jack (Lead / Corresponding author); Martin, Natasha K.; Hickman, Matthew; Hutchinson, Sharon; Aspinall, Esther; Taylor, Avril; Munro, Alison; Dunleavy, Karen; Peters, Erica; Bramley, Peter; Hayes, Peter C.; Goldberg, David J.; Vickerman, Peter.

In: Addiction, Vol. 112, No. 7, 06.06.2017, p. 1302-1317.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland

AU - Stone, Jack

AU - Martin, Natasha K.

AU - Hickman, Matthew

AU - Hutchinson, Sharon

AU - Aspinall, Esther

AU - Taylor, Avril

AU - Munro, Alison

AU - Dunleavy, Karen

AU - Peters, Erica

AU - Bramley, Peter

AU - Hayes, Peter C.

AU - Goldberg, David J.

AU - Vickerman, Peter

N1 - This work was supported through a research grant from Gilead Sciences. Gilead had no influence on the design, analysis and content of the study. J.S. acknowledges funding from a PhD scholarship from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). N.K.M., P.V. and M.H. acknowledge funding from National Institute for Drug Abuse R01 DA037773-01A1. NK.M. acknowledges research funding from the National Institute for Drug Abuse (R01 DA037773-01A1) and the University of California San Diego Center for AIDS Research(CFAR), an NIH-funded program (P30 AI036214), which is supported by the following NIH Institutes and Centers: NIAID, NCI, NIMH, NIDA, NICHD, NHLBI, NIA, NIGMS, and NIDDK. M.H. and P.V. acknowledge funding by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions at University of Bristol. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK National Health Service (NHS), NIHR or the Department of Health.

PY - 2017/6/6

Y1 - 2017/6/6

N2 - Background/Aims: People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We evaluate the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission amongst PWID, and the impact of prison-related prevention interventions, including scaling-up direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.Design: Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.Setting: Scotland; where national survey data indicates lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 vs 7.3 per 100py), but a 2.3-fold elevated transmission risk amongst recently released (16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95%CrI 38.0-51.3%) and 45.5% (95%CrI 39.3-51.0%), respectively.Conclusions: Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison-release can contribute significantly to HCV transmission amongst PWID. Scaling-up HCV treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.

AB - Background/Aims: People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We evaluate the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission amongst PWID, and the impact of prison-related prevention interventions, including scaling-up direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.Design: Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.Setting: Scotland; where national survey data indicates lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 vs 7.3 per 100py), but a 2.3-fold elevated transmission risk amongst recently released (16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95%CrI 38.0-51.3%) and 45.5% (95%CrI 39.3-51.0%), respectively.Conclusions: Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison-release can contribute significantly to HCV transmission amongst PWID. Scaling-up HCV treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.

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JO - Addiction

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