Multi-Functional Assessment of Coastal Landscapes with Climate Change

A strategic-level evaluation tool for comparing coastal management policies against different future scenarios of climate change is described. The effect of sea-level rise on tidal and flood limits is mapped using a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and an adapted hydrological routine. Implications for the coastal landscape are then determined using empirical thresholds encapsulated in transition rules for land use and land cover change. The resulting spatial data are analysed using a multi-criteria assessment procedure to facilitate an evaluation of policy options against the provision of multiple coastal services. Analysis suggests that small-scale managed realignments of the coast, although providing a political compromise, do not score highly on performance criteria compared to either large-scale realignment or maintaining the existing position. This approach also allows consideration of a broader range of environmental benefits and ecosystem services than a conventional analysis based upon property and land values.