Myanmar: despite appearances the country’s military might is waning

Myanmar military’s (Tatmadaw) support appears to be waning. In the past its powers survived because the rank and file within the Tatmadaw didn’t rebel. But this is a new dynamic. Aung San Suu Kyi, a popular leader who won two consecutive elections by overwhelming majority has been thrown into jail. Meanwhile the country’s coronavirus response is dwindling, and civil disobedience and mass protests are brewing. If this prompts defection of the Tatmadaw’s rank and file then the world may witness a profound tectonic shift in Myanmar’s political landscape, opening the door to the prospect of long-term freedoms, justice and democracy.