National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic

TY - JOUR

T1 - National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic

AU - Palmateer, N. E.

AU - Dickson, E.

AU - Furrie, E.

AU - Godber, I.

AU - Goldberg, D. J.

AU - Gousias, P.

AU - Jarvis, L.

AU - Mathie, L.

AU - Mavin, S.

AU - McMenamin, J.

AU - McNeilly, T. N.

AU - Murcia, P.

AU - Murray, J.

AU - Reid, G.

AU - Robertson, C.

AU - Templeton, K.

AU - von Wissmann, B.

AU - Wallace, L. A.

AU - Waugh, C.

AU - McAuley, A.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the Scottish Government . The funding body had no role in the conduct of this analysis or the writing of this manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Royal Society for Public Health

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - Objectives: Studies that measure the prevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (‘seroprevalence’) are essential to understand population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We aimed to measure seroprevalence in the Scottish population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic – from before the first recorded case in Scotland through to the second pandemic wave.Study design: The study design of this study is serial cross sectional.Methods: We tested 41,477 residual samples retrieved from primary and antenatal care settings across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 12-month period from December 2019-December 2020 (before rollout of COVID-19 vaccination). Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. Temporal trends in seroprevalence estimates and weekly SARS-CoV-2 notifications were compared.Results: Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence rates were 0% until the end of March, when they increased contemporaneously with the first pandemic wave. Seroprevalence rates remained stable through the summer (range: 3%–5%) during a period of social restrictions, after which they increased concurrently with the second wave, reaching 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.4%–10.8%) in the week beginning 28th December in 2020. Seroprevalence rates were lower in rural vs. urban areas (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61–0.79) and among individuals aged 20–39 years and 60 years and older (AOR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64–0.86; AOR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69–0.91, respectively) relative to those aged 0–19 years.Conclusions: After two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, less than one in ten individuals in the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence may underestimate the true population exposure as a result of waning antibodies among individuals who were infected early in the first wave.

AB - Objectives: Studies that measure the prevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (‘seroprevalence’) are essential to understand population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We aimed to measure seroprevalence in the Scottish population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic – from before the first recorded case in Scotland through to the second pandemic wave.Study design: The study design of this study is serial cross sectional.Methods: We tested 41,477 residual samples retrieved from primary and antenatal care settings across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 12-month period from December 2019-December 2020 (before rollout of COVID-19 vaccination). Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. Temporal trends in seroprevalence estimates and weekly SARS-CoV-2 notifications were compared.Results: Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence rates were 0% until the end of March, when they increased contemporaneously with the first pandemic wave. Seroprevalence rates remained stable through the summer (range: 3%–5%) during a period of social restrictions, after which they increased concurrently with the second wave, reaching 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.4%–10.8%) in the week beginning 28th December in 2020. Seroprevalence rates were lower in rural vs. urban areas (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61–0.79) and among individuals aged 20–39 years and 60 years and older (AOR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64–0.86; AOR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69–0.91, respectively) relative to those aged 0–19 years.Conclusions: After two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, less than one in ten individuals in the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence may underestimate the true population exposure as a result of waning antibodies among individuals who were infected early in the first wave.

KW - Antibodies

KW - COVID-19

KW - Cross sectional

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Seroprevalence

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85112532746

U2 - 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.006

DO - 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.006

M3 - Article

C2 - 34411992

AN - SCOPUS:85112532746

SN - 0033-3506

VL - 198

SP - 102

EP - 105

JO - Public Health

JF - Public Health

ER -