Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s Currency Board

Yu-Fu Chen, Michael Funke, Nicole Glanemann

    Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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    Abstract

    This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherUniversity of Dundee
    Publication statusPublished - 2010

    Publication series

    NameDundee Discussion Papers in Economics
    PublisherUniversity of Dundee
    No.235
    ISSN (Print)1473-236X

    Keywords

    • Currency Board Arrangement
    • Target zone model
    • Hong Kong

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