TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people
AU - Calvin, Catherine M.
AU - Wilkinson, Tim
AU - Starr, John M.
AU - Sudlow, Cathie
AU - Hagenaars, Saskia P.
AU - Harris, Sarah E.
AU - Schnier, Christian
AU - Davies, Gail
AU - Fawns-Ritchie, Chloe
AU - Gale, Catharine R.
AU - Gallacher, John
AU - Deary, Ian J.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application 10279 (http://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/2015/06/dr-catherine-gale-university-of-edinburgh/). This work was primarily supported by the Medical Research Council (MRC)-funded Dementias Platform UK (MR/L023784/2), which included a salary for C.M.C. C.F.-R. and (for one year) T.W. T.W. also received salary funding during this study from an MRC Clinical Research Training Fellowship (MR/P001823/1). The salaries of C.F.-R. S.P.H. and G.D. and part of I.J.D.'s salary were funded by the Center for Cognitive Aging and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1); funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and MRC is gratefully acknowledged. The salary for C.S. was from UK Biobank and the Scottish Funding Council. The study represents independent research supported in part (S.P.H.'s latter role) by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019
PY - 2019/12
Y1 - 2019/12
N2 - Introduction: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. Methods: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n ≤ 488,130) and electronically linked hospital inpatient and death records during three- to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n = 1051), Alzheimer's disease (n = 352), and vascular dementia (n = 169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors. Results: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (P <.01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of receiver operating characteristic curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%. Discussion: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia prediction models.
AB - Introduction: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. Methods: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n ≤ 488,130) and electronically linked hospital inpatient and death records during three- to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n = 1051), Alzheimer's disease (n = 352), and vascular dementia (n = 169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors. Results: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (P <.01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of receiver operating characteristic curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%. Discussion: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia prediction models.
KW - Alzheimer's disease
KW - APOE ε4
KW - Cognitive performance
KW - Dementia
KW - Modifiable risk factors
KW - Polygenic risk
KW - ROC
KW - Vascular dementia
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073165105&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014
DO - 10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014
M3 - Article
C2 - 31619348
AN - SCOPUS:85073165105
SN - 1552-5260
VL - 15
SP - 1546
EP - 1557
JO - Alzheimer's and Dementia
JF - Alzheimer's and Dementia
IS - 12
ER -
