Predicting vortex merging and ensuing turbulence characteristics in shear layers from initial conditions

Unstable shear layers in environmental and industrial flows roll up into a series of vortices, which often form complex nonlinear merging patterns such as pairs and triplets. These patterns crucially determine the subsequent turbulence, mixing and scalar transport. We show that the late-time, highly nonlinear merging patterns are predictable from the linearized initial state. The initial asymmetry between consecutive wavelengths of the vertical velocity field provides an effective measure of the strength and pattern of vortex merging. The predictions of this measure are substantiated using direct numerical simulations. We also show that this measure has significant implications in determining the route to turbulence and the ensuing turbulence characteristics.