Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events from Retinal, Clinical and Genomic Data in Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes: A Population Cohort Study

Ify R. Mordi (Lead / Corresponding author), Emanuele Trucco, Mohammad Ghouse Syed, Tom MacGillivray, Aditya Nar, Yu Huang, Gittu George, Stephen Hogg, Radha Venkateshan, Vijayaraghavan Prathiba, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Viswanathan Mohan, Colin N. A. Palmer, Ewan R. Pearson, Chim C. Lang, Alexander S. F. Doney (Lead / Corresponding author),

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)
142 Downloads (Pure)


OBJECTIVE Improved identification of individuals with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular (CV) risk could help in selection of newer CV risk-reducing therapies. The aim of this study was to determine whether retinal vascular parameters, derived from retinal screening photographs, alone and in combination with a genome-wide polygenic risk score for coronary heart disease (CHD PRS) would have independent prognostic value over traditional CV risk assessment in patients without prior CV disease. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Patients in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside Scotland (Go-DARTS) study were linked to retinal photographs, prescriptions, and outcomes. Retinal photographs were analyzed using VAMPIRE (Vascular Assessment and Measurement Platform for Images of the Retina) software, a semiautomated artificial intelligence platform, to compute arterial and venous fractal dimension, tortuosity, and diameter. CHD PRS was derived from previously published data. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between retinal vascular parameters and major adverse CV events (MACE) at 10 years compared with the pooled cohort equations (PCE) risk score. RESULTS Among 5,152 individuals included in the study, a MACE occurred in 1,017 individ-uals. Reduced arterial fractal dimension and diameter and increased venous tor-tuosity each independently predicted MACE. A risk score combining these parameters significantly predicted MACE after adjustment for age, sex, PCE, and the CHD PRS (hazard ratio 1.11 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.04–1.18, P 5 0.002) with similar accuracy to PCE (area under the curve [AUC] 0.663 vs. 0.658, P 5 0.33). A model incorporating retinal parameters and PRS improved MACE prediction compared with PCE (AUC 0.686 vs. 0.658, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Retinal parameters alone and in combination with genome-wide CHD PRS have independent and incremental prognostic value compared with traditional CV risk assessment in type 2 diabetes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)710-716
Number of pages7
JournalDiabetes Care
Issue number3
Early online date18 Jan 2022
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2022

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Advanced and Specialised Nursing
  • Internal Medicine
  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism


Dive into the research topics of 'Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events from Retinal, Clinical and Genomic Data in Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes: A Population Cohort Study'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this