Pup mortality in a rapidly declining harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population

Nora Hanson (Lead / Corresponding author), Dave Thompson, Callan Duck, Simon Moss, Mike Lonergan

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    10 Citations (Scopus)


    The harbour seal population in Orkney, off the north coast of Scotland, has reduced by 65% between 2001 and 2010. The cause(s) of this decline are unknown but must affect the demographic parameters of the population. Here, satellite telemetry data were used to test the hypothesis that increased pup mortality could be a primary driver of the decline in Orkney. Pup mortality and tag failure parameters were estimated from the duration of operation of satellite tags deployed on harbour seal pups from the Orkney population (n = 24) and from another population on the west coast of Scotland (n = 24) where abundance was stable. Survival probabilities from both populations were best represented by a common gamma distribution and were not different from one another, suggesting that increased pup mortality is unlikely to be the primary agent in the Orkney population decline. The estimated probability of surviving to 6 months was 0.390 (95% CI 0.297-0.648) and tag failure was represented by a Gaussian distribution, with estimated mean 270 (95% CI = 198-288) and s.d. 21 (95% CI = 1-66) days. These results suggest that adult survival is the most likely proximate cause of the decline. They also demonstrate a novel technique for attaining age-specific mortality rates from telemetry data.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article numbere80727
    JournalPLoS ONE
    Issue number11
    Publication statusPublished - 27 Nov 2013

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
    • General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
    • General


    Dive into the research topics of 'Pup mortality in a rapidly declining harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this