Abstract
The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1152-1162 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Hydrological Sciences Journal |
| Volume | 55 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2010 |
Keywords
- floods
- flood frequency
- historical augmentation
- pooled analysis
- Generalized Pareto Distribution
- River Ouse
- Yorkshire
- VALUABLE RESOURCE
- CHRONOLOGY
- CATCHMENTS
- MODEL
- RISK
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