Resource Dependence, Economic Growth, and Green Transition: Evidence from China

Aligned with China's "14th Five-Year Plan" that prioritizes balanced regional development and green transformation, this study examines the relationship between resource dependence and economic growth in 247 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2019. Based on the "National Sustainable Development Planning for Resource-based Cities (2013-2020)," we divide the period into two periods (2002-2013 and 2014-2019) and categorize cities as resource-based or non-resource-based. We analyze the impact of resource dependence on economic growth across both city types and periods. Our findings reveal that during the first period, resource dependence positively impacted economic growth for all cities. However, this effect reversed in the second period. To further investigate this shift, we examine pollutant emission data. The significant decrease in industrial wastewater discharge after 2015 suggests a growing emphasis on green development, potentially explaining the negative impact of resource dependence in the later period. Our findings raise intriguing questions about the long-term sustainability of resource-dependent cities undergoing green transformation.