Returns from Liquidity Provision in Cryptocurrency Markets

We examine the liquidity provision premium in cryptocurrency markets using the returns from the short reversal strategy. We show that returns from liquidity provision can be predicted using the Volatility Index (VIX), realized variance (RV), crash risk, tail risk, and innovations of Tether liquidity. We also find that an increase in the liquidity provision premium is associated with a decline in liquidity, trading volume, and transaction count, as well as more withdrawals, higher fees, and greater impermanent loss on Uniswap. This suggests potential competition between centralized and decentralized exchanges. Further, the liquidity provision premium of stock markets in the US, Canada, and the UK positively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (effect of a common shock), while that of stock markets in China and Japan negatively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (effect of substitution).