The Luxury of Lockdown

Mehdi Shiva (Lead / Corresponding author), Hassan Molana

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Regression analysis based on data from Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and the World Bank datasets for 169 countries suggests that containment policies have, in general, a significant role in reducing the pandemic's fatality rate across all countries. However (i) there is at least a three weeks lag in realising the impact, (ii) the effectiveness increases with per capita income and, more specifically, (iii) workplace closure is ineffective in low-income countries. The analysis of data from Demographic and Health Survey (the DHS Programme) and IMF Policy Tracker indicates that developing countries are unlikely to have the basis required for effectively adopting stringent lockdown measures and instead would need to consider specifically targeted lockdown policies.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages21
JournalEuropean Journal of Development Research
Early online date9 Apr 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 9 Apr 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Containment policies
  • Lockdown
  • Low-income countries

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