The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: A response to Harding et al. (2002)

Mike Lonergan; John Harwood

doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x

The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: A response to Harding et al. (2002)

Mike Lonergan
, John Harwood

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	889-893
Number of pages	5
Journal	Ecology letters
Volume	6
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x
Publication status	Published - Oct 2003

Keywords

Epidemiology
Epizootiology
Extinction risk
Mathematical model
Mortality rates
Phocine distemper virus
Population dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Access to Document

10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x

Cite this

@article{14a7b45ae9c04f53bc30f4bcd56b0a00,

title = "The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: A response to Harding et al. (2002)",

abstract = "In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60\% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18\%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90\%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1\%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.",

keywords = "Epidemiology, Epizootiology, Extinction risk, Mathematical model, Mortality rates, Phocine distemper virus, Population dynamics",

author = "Mike Lonergan and John Harwood",

year = "2003",

month = oct,

doi = "10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

pages = "889--893",

journal = "Ecology letters",

issn = "1461-023X",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "10",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals

T2 - A response to Harding et al. (2002)

AU - Lonergan, Mike

AU - Harwood, John

PY - 2003/10

Y1 - 2003/10

N2 - In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.

AB - In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.

KW - Epidemiology

KW - Epizootiology

KW - Extinction risk

KW - Mathematical model

KW - Mortality rates

KW - Phocine distemper virus

KW - Population dynamics

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/0141818220

U2 - 10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x

DO - 10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0141818220

SN - 1461-023X

VL - 6

SP - 889

EP - 893

JO - Ecology letters

JF - Ecology letters

IS - 10

ER -

The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: A response to Harding et al. (2002)

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this