The stability of world oil markets and the potential for oil shocks1

Jennifer I. Considine; Douglas Cooke; Geoffrey Wood; Sylvain Cote; Abdullah Aldayel

doi:10.4337/9781789901764.00010

The stability of world oil markets and the potential for oil shocks1

Jennifer I. Considine, Douglas Cooke, Geoffrey Wood, Sylvain Cote, Abdullah Aldayel

Energy Environment and Society

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter (peer-reviewed) › peer-review

Abstract

Despite many journal articles, forecasting models, and books, little is known about the actual quantitative value, or cost to society, of oil shocks. The potential consequences of any specific political or economic disturbance are unclear and depend on the market conditions and the exact nature of the supply shock. Forecasting is complicated by forecast bias and the reliability and availability of data and statistics, raising several important questions: What key market characteristics determine the stability of world oil markets? And What are the main sources of uncertainty currently reigning over world oil markets? We find that the main factors governing the stability of world oil markets are inventories, OPEC spare capacity levels, the trajectory of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, demand, supply dynamics, and the interaction of stocks and flows. These, in turn, are affected by numerous sources of uncertainty or risk.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	A Research Agenda for Energy Politics
Editors	Jennifer Considine, Sylvain Cote, Douglas Cooke, Geoffrey Wood
Publisher	Edward Elgar Publishing
Chapter	1
Pages	3-19
Number of pages	18
ISBN (Electronic)	9781789901764
ISBN (Print)	9781789901757
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789901764.00010
Publication status	Published - 25 Apr 2023

Publication series

Name	Political Science and Public Policy 2023
Publisher	Edward Elgar Publishing

Access to Document

10.4337/9781789901764.00010Licence: No Licence / Unknown

1 Book
1 Foreword/postscript

A research agenda for energy politics
Considine, J. (Editor), Cote, S. (Editor), Cooke, D. (Editor) & Wood, G. (Editor), 25 Apr 2023, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing. 388 p. (Political Science and Public Policy)
Research output: Book/Report › Book
Introduction to A Research Agenda for Energy Politics
Considine, J. I., 25 Apr 2023, A Research Agenda for Energy Politics. Considine, J., Cote, S., Cooke, D. & Wood, G. (eds.). Edward Elgar Publishing, p. xxxvii-xiv 10 p. (Political Science and Public Policy 2023).
Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Foreword/postscript

Cite this

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abstract = "Despite many journal articles, forecasting models, and books, little is known about the actual quantitative value, or cost to society, of oil shocks. The potential consequences of any specific political or economic disturbance are unclear and depend on the market conditions and the exact nature of the supply shock. Forecasting is complicated by forecast bias and the reliability and availability of data and statistics, raising several important questions: What key market characteristics determine the stability of world oil markets? And What are the main sources of uncertainty currently reigning over world oil markets? We find that the main factors governing the stability of world oil markets are inventories, OPEC spare capacity levels, the trajectory of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, demand, supply dynamics, and the interaction of stocks and flows. These, in turn, are affected by numerous sources of uncertainty or risk.",

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The stability of world oil markets and the potential for oil shocks1. / Considine, Jennifer I.; Cooke, Douglas; Wood, Geoffrey et al.
A Research Agenda for Energy Politics. ed. / Jennifer Considine; Sylvain Cote; Douglas Cooke; Geoffrey Wood. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023. p. 3-19 (Political Science and Public Policy 2023).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter (peer-reviewed) › peer-review

TY - CHAP

T1 - The stability of world oil markets and the potential for oil shocks1

AU - Considine, Jennifer I.

AU - Cooke, Douglas

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AU - Cote, Sylvain

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AB - Despite many journal articles, forecasting models, and books, little is known about the actual quantitative value, or cost to society, of oil shocks. The potential consequences of any specific political or economic disturbance are unclear and depend on the market conditions and the exact nature of the supply shock. Forecasting is complicated by forecast bias and the reliability and availability of data and statistics, raising several important questions: What key market characteristics determine the stability of world oil markets? And What are the main sources of uncertainty currently reigning over world oil markets? We find that the main factors governing the stability of world oil markets are inventories, OPEC spare capacity levels, the trajectory of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, demand, supply dynamics, and the interaction of stocks and flows. These, in turn, are affected by numerous sources of uncertainty or risk.

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A2 - Cote, Sylvain

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PB - Edward Elgar Publishing

ER -

The stability of world oil markets and the potential for oil shocks1

Abstract

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Research output

A research agenda for energy politics

Introduction to A Research Agenda for Energy Politics

Cite this