Type 2 Diabetes, Metabolic traits and Risk of Heart Failure: a Mendelian Randomization study

Ify Mordi (Lead / Corresponding author), R. Thomas Lumbers, Colin N. A. Palmer, Ewan R. Pearson, Naveed Sattar, Michael V. Holmes, Chim C. Lang, HERMES Consortium

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Objective: The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization (MR) techniques to estimate the causal relationships between genetic liability to type 2 diabetes, glycaemic traits and risk of HF.

Research Design and Methods: Summary-level data were obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of type 2 diabetes, insulin resistance (IR), glycated haemoglobin, fasting insulin and glucose and HF. MR was conducted using the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method. Sensitivity analyses included MR-Egger, weighted median and mode methods, and multivariable MR conditioning on potential mediators.

Results: Genetic liability to type 2 diabetes was causally related to higher risk of HF (OR: 1.13 per 1 log-unit higher risk of type 2 diabetes; 95% CI 1.11-1.14, p<0.001), however sensitivity analysis revealed evidence of directional pleiotropy. The relationship between type 2 diabetes and HF was attenuated when adjusted for coronary disease, body mass index, LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure. Genetically-instrumented higher IR was associated with higher risk of HF (OR 1.19 per 1 log-unit higher risk of IR; 95% CI 1.00-1.41, p=0.041). There were no notable associations identified between fasting insulin, glucose or glycated haemoglobin and risk of HF. Genetic liability to HF was causally linked to higher risk of type 2 diabetes (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.01-2.19, p=0.042) though again with evidence of pleiotropy.

Conclusions: These findings suggest a causal role of type 2 diabetes and IR in HF aetiology, though both the presence of bidirectional effects and directional pleiotropy highlight potential sources of bias that need to be considered.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberdc202518
Pages (from-to)1699-1705
Number of pages7
JournalDiabetes Care
Early online date4 Jun 2021
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2021


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