Abstract
The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Accuracy 2010 |
| Subtitle of host publication | Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences |
| Editors | Nicholas J. Tate, Peter F. Fisher |
| Publisher | International Spatial Accuracy Research Association |
| Pages | 61-64 |
| Number of pages | 4 |
| Publication status | Published - 2010 |
| Event | 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010 - Leicester, United Kingdom Duration: 20 Jul 2010 → 23 Jul 2010 |
Conference
| Conference | 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010 |
|---|---|
| Country | United Kingdom |
| City | Leicester |
| Period | 20/07/10 → 23/07/10 |
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Keywords
- Gaussian simulations
- General additive model
- Geostatistics
- Spatial uncertainty
- Stochastic modelling
Cite this
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Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. / Poggio, Laura (Lead / Corresponding author); Gimona, Alessandro; Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie.
Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. ed. / Nicholas J. Tate; Peter F. Fisher. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association, 2010. p. 61-64.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
TY - GEN
T1 - Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland
AU - Poggio, Laura
AU - Gimona, Alessandro
AU - Brown, Iain
AU - Castellazzi, Marie
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.
AB - The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.
KW - Gaussian simulations
KW - General additive model
KW - Geostatistics
KW - Spatial uncertainty
KW - Stochastic modelling
M3 - Conference contribution
SP - 61
EP - 64
BT - Accuracy 2010
A2 - Tate, Nicholas J.
A2 - Fisher, Peter F.
PB - International Spatial Accuracy Research Association
ER -