Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland

Laura Poggio (Lead / Corresponding author), Alessandro Gimona, Iain Brown, Marie Castellazzi

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationAccuracy 2010
    Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences
    EditorsNicholas J. Tate, Peter F. Fisher
    PublisherInternational Spatial Accuracy Research Association
    Pages61-64
    Number of pages4
    Publication statusPublished - 2010
    Event9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010 - Leicester, United Kingdom
    Duration: 20 Jul 201023 Jul 2010

    Conference

    Conference9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    CityLeicester
    Period20/07/1023/07/10

    Fingerprint

    drought
    available water capacity
    climate
    soil
    pedotransfer function
    crop
    soil survey
    kriging
    soil property
    hydrology
    risk assessment
    catchment
    climate change
    ecosystem
    modeling
    water

    Keywords

    • Gaussian simulations
    • General additive model
    • Geostatistics
    • Spatial uncertainty
    • Stochastic modelling

    Cite this

    Poggio, L., Gimona, A., Brown, I., & Castellazzi, M. (2010). Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. In N. J. Tate, & P. F. Fisher (Eds.), Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences (pp. 61-64). International Spatial Accuracy Research Association.
    Poggio, Laura ; Gimona, Alessandro ; Brown, Iain ; Castellazzi, Marie. / Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. editor / Nicholas J. Tate ; Peter F. Fisher. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association, 2010. pp. 61-64
    @inproceedings{7ab94ca750c14c7881f303a67b9fb39d,
    title = "Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland",
    abstract = "The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.",
    keywords = "Gaussian simulations, General additive model, Geostatistics, Spatial uncertainty, Stochastic modelling",
    author = "Laura Poggio and Alessandro Gimona and Iain Brown and Marie Castellazzi",
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    pages = "61--64",
    editor = "Tate, {Nicholas J.} and Fisher, {Peter F.}",
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    publisher = "International Spatial Accuracy Research Association",

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    Poggio, L, Gimona, A, Brown, I & Castellazzi, M 2010, Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. in NJ Tate & PF Fisher (eds), Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association, pp. 61-64, 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010, Leicester, United Kingdom, 20/07/10.

    Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. / Poggio, Laura (Lead / Corresponding author); Gimona, Alessandro; Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie.

    Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. ed. / Nicholas J. Tate; Peter F. Fisher. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association, 2010. p. 61-64.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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    T1 - Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland

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    AU - Gimona, Alessandro

    AU - Brown, Iain

    AU - Castellazzi, Marie

    PY - 2010

    Y1 - 2010

    N2 - The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.

    AB - The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.

    KW - Gaussian simulations

    KW - General additive model

    KW - Geostatistics

    KW - Spatial uncertainty

    KW - Stochastic modelling

    M3 - Conference contribution

    AN - SCOPUS:84975706392

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    BT - Accuracy 2010

    A2 - Tate, Nicholas J.

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    PB - International Spatial Accuracy Research Association

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    Poggio L, Gimona A, Brown I, Castellazzi M. Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. In Tate NJ, Fisher PF, editors, Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. International Spatial Accuracy Research Association. 2010. p. 61-64