Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland

Laura Poggio (Lead / Corresponding author), Alessandro Gimona, Iain Brown, Marie Castellazzi

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    The impact of climate change on ecosystems is a global issue. As a result of the interaction between decreasing precipitation during the growth period and soil properties, the water available for plants and crops may become a limitation factor for crops or certain forest species in some areas in Scotland. The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainty of a model predicting drought risk in the Dee catchment in the North East of Scotland. The model focuses on the fundamental interactions between soil and climate, which are the critical drivers for determining the available water capacity. Soil available water capacity was calculated, using pedotransfer functions, with data derived from the Scottish Soil Survey Database at ca. 100 profiles. We used a variation of regression kriging to interpolate the data. The preliminary results showed that the uncertainty related to soil modelling is higher in areas with rougher morphology and complex hydrology. A Bayesian framework for uncertainty integration of soil and climate interactions is briefly presented. The evaluated overall uncertainty is useful to underpin informed policy decisions, via risk assessment.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationAccuracy 2010
    Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences
    EditorsNicholas J. Tate, Peter F. Fisher
    PublisherInternational Spatial Accuracy Research Association
    Pages61-64
    Number of pages4
    Publication statusPublished - 2010
    Event9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010 - Leicester, United Kingdom
    Duration: 20 Jul 201023 Jul 2010

    Conference

    Conference9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, Accuracy 2010
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    CityLeicester
    Period20/07/1023/07/10

    Keywords

    • Gaussian simulations
    • General additive model
    • Geostatistics
    • Spatial uncertainty
    • Stochastic modelling

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  • Cite this

    Poggio, L., Gimona, A., Brown, I., & Castellazzi, M. (2010). Uncertainty in the estimation of drought risk due to soil-climate interactions in Scotland. In N. J. Tate, & P. F. Fisher (Eds.), Accuracy 2010: Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences (pp. 61-64). International Spatial Accuracy Research Association. http://www.spatial-accuracy.org/PoggioAccuracy2010