Understanding the Recent Growth in Consumer Loans and Credit Cards in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey

Murat Mazibas (Lead / Corresponding author), Yusuf Tuna

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    4 Citations (Scopus)
    284 Downloads (Pure)


    In recent years, the surge in household indebtedness to historical heights has become a significant concern for developed economies. A similar trend has been witnessed in emerging market countries including Turkey. Our objective is to help further understand the dynamics of the recent growth in consumer loans and credit cards (CLCC) in Turkey. For this purpose, we investigate the long-term equilibrating relationships and short-term deviations from the equilibrium, and explore the determinants, directions, and strengths of causality relationships between CLCC and the selected macroeconomic variables, and analyze the dynamic interactions among the variables in the post-sample period by analyzing how CLCC responds to the shocks given to other macroeconomic variables and the contribution of each variable on the forecast variability of CLCC. We use monthly data for the period of January 2004—December 2013 of seven macroeconomic variables of money supply, interest rate, income, consumer confidence, inflation, stock market, and consumer goods imports. On empirical findings, we make suggestions about which policy tools should be used to influence, and if necessary to manage, the growth in CLCC.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)2333-2346
    Number of pages14
    JournalEmerging Markets Finance and Trade
    Issue number10
    Early online date25 Aug 2017
    Publication statusPublished - 2017


    • ARDL models
    • cointegration
    • consumer loans
    • credit cards
    • emerging markets
    • Granger causality
    • impulse response
    • monetary policy
    • variance decomposition


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