What is the cost and potential of low carbon electricity transition in the MENA region?

TY - JOUR

T1 - What is the cost and potential of low carbon electricity transition in the MENA region?

AU - Bamisile, Olusola

AU - Xing, Yankai

AU - Acen, Caroline

AU - Cai, Dongsheng

AU - Zhang, Guangdou

AU - Adun, Humphrey

AU - Staffell, Iain

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Authors

PY - 2025/5/26

Y1 - 2025/5/26

N2 - Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power, is a validated approach for mitigating carbon emissions. To maximize renewable energy potential and account for costs and impacts of low carbon energy transitions, research models or modelling tools must provide an accurate representation of the technological and economic capabilities of renewable energy technologies. Hence, this study assesses the electricity generation potential, and costs associated with onshore and offshore wind power, and solar photovoltaic (PV) system, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on wind and solar atlas datasets. Unlike existing works in literature, the assessment of offshore wind energy potential and the calculation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in this study incorporates factors like water depth, distance from shore, and wind speed. Also, the potential of onshore wind energy and solar photovoltaic systems is evaluated by considering variables such as population density, availability of suitable land area, and geographical location, for every grid cell in the MENA region. We found that the average LCOE can be as low as US$40/MWh for solar PV and US$45/MWh for wind power, achieved in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait respectively. This work contributes to existing literature by providing reliable LCOE, capacity factor, and productivity data for solar and wind energy potential estimation in the MENA region.

AB - Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power, is a validated approach for mitigating carbon emissions. To maximize renewable energy potential and account for costs and impacts of low carbon energy transitions, research models or modelling tools must provide an accurate representation of the technological and economic capabilities of renewable energy technologies. Hence, this study assesses the electricity generation potential, and costs associated with onshore and offshore wind power, and solar photovoltaic (PV) system, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on wind and solar atlas datasets. Unlike existing works in literature, the assessment of offshore wind energy potential and the calculation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in this study incorporates factors like water depth, distance from shore, and wind speed. Also, the potential of onshore wind energy and solar photovoltaic systems is evaluated by considering variables such as population density, availability of suitable land area, and geographical location, for every grid cell in the MENA region. We found that the average LCOE can be as low as US$40/MWh for solar PV and US$45/MWh for wind power, achieved in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait respectively. This work contributes to existing literature by providing reliable LCOE, capacity factor, and productivity data for solar and wind energy potential estimation in the MENA region.

KW - Carbon emissions

KW - Levelized cost of electricity

KW - MENA region

KW - Power generation potential

KW - Solar PV

KW - Wind power

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105005855952

U2 - 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101762

DO - 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101762

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105005855952

SN - 2211-467X

VL - 59

JO - Energy Strategy Reviews

JF - Energy Strategy Reviews

M1 - 101762

ER -