Trade Integration Among the GCC Countries

Abstract

I study different aspects of trade integration among Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) by examining the effect of GCC Free Trade Agreement (GCC CU) on trade among GCC countries during the 1995-2012 period. Different variations of the gravity model of international trade are applied to a set of bilateral trade flows among 38 countries representing GCC countries and their major trade partners during the 1995-2012 period.

In chapter two I investigate the effect of GCC CU on aggregate trade among GCC countries. The findings of chapter two suggest that GCC CU has resulted in no trade creation among GCC countries during the 1995-2012 period.

In chapter three, investigate the effect of GCC CU on intra-industry trade among GCC countries. Investigating GCC CU effects for disaggregate trade is important, as the aggregate results may suffer from aggregation bias. Also, it helps identify the sectors that benefit more from GCC CU which is an important issue for GCC countries that are seeking diversification of their economies. Results suggest that GCC CU trade creation was more concentrated in sectors that exhibit lower shares of GCC intra-trade during the 1995-2012 time period.

Chapter four examines the desirability and feasibility of establishing the GCC monetary union by assessing the old and new convergence criteria that whether the GCC states meet these criteria or not. It is evident that GCC member states have shown the capability for a currency and monetary union. With regards to future plans, the union should look to increase intra-regional trade and investment among countries - this might help to develop nonoil industries in countries and eliminate exchange rate risk and transaction costs.

Date of Award	2019
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Dundee
Supervisor	Bill Russell (Supervisor) & Yin Zhang (Supervisor)